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Trump widens lead over Biden in 2024 election odds

Donald Trump’s chances to be elected president again in 2024 are the best since he left the White House in January 2021.

Trump is the clear betting favorite to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election. He leads the field of candidates with a 26.3 percent likelihood of winning, which equates to +280, on the Smarkets betting exchange, based in the United Kingdom.

President Joe Biden is given only a 15.1 percent chance of re-election, which equates to +560.

“Donald Trump has now hit an all-time high mark on the Smarkets exchange and is pulling away as the clear favorite to win the 2024 election,” Smarkets head of political markets Matthew Shaddick said in a release. “Polls continue to place him way ahead of any other Republican and Smarkets prices rate him a 70 percent chance to run again.

“Biden’s chances are rated incredibly low for a sitting president, with the markets giving him only around a one-in-six chance of re-election.”

Trump has a 40.5 percent chance (+147) to win again in 2024, according to electionbettingodds.com, which pulls live odds from FTX.com, Betfair.com, Smarkets.com and PredictIt.org and serves as an aggregator of all the markets.

That number is up from 30.3 percent (+230) in December. In the same span, Biden’s chances have dipped from 16.9 percent (+492) to 15.5 percent (+545).

All betting odds can be converted into an implied chance, or percentage, of something happening, and that is how Smarkets and electionbettingodds.com present their odds.

Trump’s odds also have improved at London-based Ladbrokes sportsbook, where he is the +225 favorite to win in 2024 after being +260 in December and +350 in October. Biden is the +450 second choice after sitting at 4-1 in December.

A plus sign represents what a bettor would win if they wagered $100. In this case, a bettor would have to wager $100 to win $225 on Trump to win the election.

While Trump has widened his lead on the betting board over Biden, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has supplanted Vice President Kamala Harris as the clear third pick to win the 2024 election.

DeSantis has a 13.9 percent chance (+620) at Smarkets and electionbettingodds.com, while Harris has seen her chances at electionbettingodds.com drop from 10.1 percent (9-1) in December to 6.1 percent (15-1).

DeSantis is the 6-1 third choice at Ladbrokes, followed by former Vice President Mike Pence at 9-1. Harris has soared to the 12-1 fifth pick after being 6-1 in December.

“The 2020 tickets provide four of the top five in the betting (Biden, Harris, Trump and Pence). But the new face is Florida Governor Ron DeSantis,” Shaddick said. “He is amassing a string of rich donors and if anything stops Trump from running would likely become the overall favorite to take the White House in two years’ time.”

Betting on politics isn’t permitted at U.S. sportsbooks.

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.

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