UNLV must run ‘gauntlet’ to win ‘wild’ Mountain West tournament

“It’s probably the most balanced tournament I’ve ever seen,” longtime Westgate SuperBook oddsmaker Ed Salmons said. “You just never see that kind of balance. Seven teams in single-digit odds is just unheard of.”

San Diego State is the +280 favorite to win the event, which starts Wednesday at the Thomas &Mack Center. Utah State is the +450 second choice, followed by UNR at 5-1, Boise State and New Mexico at 6-1, the Rebels at 7-1 and Colorado State at +750.

“You could play this thing 100 times, and those seven teams will probably win almost all of them. They’re just so close,” Salmons said. “San Diego State is a couple points better than everyone else, and (UNR) is playing probably the most consistent of everyone else.

“But it’s wild. You can go all the way down to New Mexico and Colorado State, and they’re more than capable of winning.”

UNLV, the No. 4 seed, will face No. 5 San Diego State in the quarterfinals at 2:30 p.m. Thursday. It’s a rematch of the Rebels’ 62-58 win over the Aztecs on Tuesday as 2½-point home underdogs.

The line hasn’t been posted, but Salmons projects it to be similar to last week’s matchup.

“Maybe a little higher, given UNLV won,” he said. “It’s not a true home game for UNLV. It may come a touch higher, maybe 4. San Diego State knows it just lost to them, so you’ve got to figure they’ll come focused.”

The Aztecs, who have lost three of their past five games while going 1-4 against the spread, won last year’s tournament before advancing to the national title game against Connecticut.

Salmons said they’re the favorites to repeat despite finishing fifth in the conference in the regular season because they’re the highest power-rated team.

“It’s as simple as that,” he said. “San Diego State, unless there are injuries on the way, will be favored in every game. But they’re not going to be big spreads. If it’s the seven teams we’re talking about, no game will be more than 4 or 4½.”

Salmons said the Rebels, who have won 10 of their past 12 games (9-3 ATS), most likely need to win the event to secure a spot in the NCAA Tournament.

“This is such a gauntlet. There’s just no easy games,” he said. “One positive for UNLV is they only need to win three games. They’re looking at San Diego State, then most likely Utah State and whoever else is on the other side of the bracket.

“Three tough games in three days. It’s going to be hard, but they’re all winnable. You’re looking at spreads of less than 4 in every game.”

UNR, which swept the season series with UNLV, has won 10 of its past 11 games (9-2 ATS).

Pac-12

Arizona is the -150 favorite at the SuperBook to win the Pac-12 tournament, which starts Wednesday at T-Mobile Arena.

Colorado is the 5-1 second choice, followed by Washington State (6-1), Oregon (12-1), Utah (18-1) and Southern California (20-1).

“The dark-horse team everyone’s looking at is USC,” Salmons said. “They had a million injuries along the way, but they have everyone back now. They played good ball at the end of the year and just beat Arizona.”

The Trojans play Washington on Wednesday, with the winner playing Arizona in Thursday’s quarterfinals.

“Obviously they need to beat Washington first. But if USC knocks off Arizona, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them run the table,” Salmons said. “They certainly have the talent to do it.”

Big West, WAC

Grand Canyon is the -125 favorite to win the Western Athletic Conference tournament, which starts Thursday at Orleans Arena. Tarleton State is +375 and Texas-Arlington 8-1.

UC Irvine is the -175 favorite to win the Big West tournament, which starts Thursday at Dollar Loan Center. UC Davis is +450 and Hawaii 8-1.

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.