Weekend best bets: Chiefs-49ers rematch splits handicappers
Backing Andy Reid after a bye and Patrick Mahomes as an underdog have been profitable propositions for bettors.
The Chiefs coach is 21-4 following a bye and the Kansas City quarterback is 11-1-1 against the spread as an underdog.
Both of those trends are in play Sunday at San Francisco. The 49ers are consensus 1½-point favorites over the Chiefs eight months after losing to Kansas City 25-22 in overtime in Super Bowl 58 at Allegiant Stadium in February.
Legendary sportscaster Brent Musburger is 9-1 ATS the last two weeks in the Review-Journal NFL Challenge. He’s riding with Reid in the Super Bowl rematch.
“Can’t pass up Andy Reid after a bye. With coach Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs are 5-1 following an off week. Only loss was a year ago against the Eagles and that loss deserves an asterisk. Eagles were also coming off bye,” Musburger said. “Reid is pedestrian 1-2 when both teams are rested but he’s 20-2 off bye when opponent played week before.
“Look out 49ers. Andy Reid is looking for another victory cheeseburger.”
Professional sports bettor Jeff Whitelaw is bucking the historical trends. In a conflicting best bet, he likes the 49ers.
“I know Kansas City’s coming off of a bye but a lot of their guys are out, coupled with San Francisco’s starting to get a little healthier,” Whitelaw said. “I think it’s a must win for the 49ers. The Chiefs are 5-0, but they really haven’t faced a defense that’s this good. This is a real good spot for the 49ers this week.”
While those plays cancel each other out, here are four other best bets, which went 2-3 ATS last week and are 17-5-1 the last four weeks (home team in CAPS):
Seahawks (+3) over FALCONS
Pro handicapper Scott Kellen went 4-1 ATS last week to ascend to second place in the RJ Challenge (19-11). His top play is on Seattle.
“Getting +3 with two teams I rate about even makes the ‘dog a good bet,” said Kellen (@SixthSenseNFL). “I make this number closer to Atlanta -1½. What makes this a very good matchup for Seattle is Atlanta’s inability to put pressure on the quarterback. The Falcons are last in the league in sacks and second-to-last in the league generating pressure.
“If (Seahawks quarterback) Geno Smith has time to throw, he has the weapons to move the ball up and down the field all game. And Seattle is much better in the red zone generating touchdowns versus Atlanta’s red-zone success rate on offense. If both teams get to the red zone the same amount, Seattle figures to outscore Atlanta.”
PACKERS (-2½) over Texans
Westgate SuperBook vice president Jay Kornegay, the defending RJ Challenge champion who is 17-11-2 ATS this season, likes Green Bay to cover against Houston at Lambeau Field.
“(Packers quarterback) Jordan Love is getting more comfortable with each game,” Kornegay said. “The Texans have a solid defensive front but Love makes plays despite pressure.”
Lions (+1½) over VIKINGS
Pro sports bettor Cris Zeniuk expects Detroit to deal 5-0 Minnesota its first loss despite the fact that the Lions are coming off an emotional 47-9 win over the Cowboys in which they lost edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson to a broken leg.
“There are cracks in the armor with this Minnesota team that I don’t think people are seeing,” said Zeniuk (@lasvegascris). “This is an unusual spot where you have Detroit coming off this big game. What I found really remarkable is their star defensive player goes down … but they didn’t let up and nothing I saw postgame or since tells me this team is moping about one player being gone. They’re optimistic. I’m not looking for a flat spot from this team.
“I’ve been so pro Minnesota but my numbers still say the Lions are a much, much better team.”
Zeniuk said he likes the Lions more in a teaser than straight up.
UNR (+3) over Fresno State, Friday
CBS Sportsline handicapper Bruce Marshall leads the RJ College Challenge with a 22-12-1 ATS mark after going 4-0-1 last week. He likes UNR to cover at home Friday.
“The Wolf Pack are on the ascent under new coach Jeff Choate, with Texas transfer running back Savion Red emerging as a new big-play threat,” Marshall said. “Tricky stretch for Fresno and interim coach Tim Skipper, whose future with the Bulldogs grows more cloudy with each loss.”
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.