Weekend best bets: Will Dolphins crumble in cold again vs. Packers?
The nightcap of the NFL’s annual Thanksgiving Day tripleheader is expected to feature classic football weather on the legendary frozen tundra of Lambeau Field.
The forecast for the Dolphins-Packers game calls for temperatures in the 20s with a wind chill of 19 degrees and a chance of snow.
That’s good news for football fans, but historically bad news for Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who is 0-6 when it’s 46 degrees or colder.
Iconic sportscaster Brent Musburger is banking on the Packers to extend that trend.
Musburger, 4-1 against the spread last week in the Review-Journal NFL Challenge, made the Packers (-3) and the Bills (-7) over 49ers on “Sunday Night Football” his best bets this week.
“This holiday, I’m giving thanks for cold weather in Green Bay and Buffalo,” he said. “No team hates the cold like the Dolphins. According to CBS, they’ve lost their last 12 games when the temperature is below 42 degrees. And Sunday night, Buffalo will welcome the 49ers with snow and below-freezing temperatures. So even if Brock Purdy is able to play, his injured right shoulder won’t be completely comfortable in that weather.
“The Packers and the Bills are my holiday weather treats as I sip an egg nog in front of a TV above a roaring fire.”
Westgate oddsmaker Jeff Sherman reported sharp action on Thursday’s games on the Bears +10½ over the Lions and on both sides of Cowboys-Giants (Giants +4 and +3½, Cowboys -3).
Here are six other weekend best bets (and two conflicting picks), which went 7-0 ATS last week and are 40-23-2 over the past 10 weeks (home team in CAPS):
Seahawks (-1½) over JETS
“Seattle is playing well, and the Jets are a team that has a lot of dissension in the locker room. Aaron Rodgers is causing a lot of disruptions. I don’t think he has the team,” said pro sports bettor Jeff Whitelaw, who went 4-0 ATS last week. “Seattle is in desperation to win the division. The Jets are almost mathematically eliminated. I just don’t think Rodgers has got it anymore.”
Cardinals-VIKINGS over 45
“Both of these teams have allowed plenty of points against better-than-average offenses this year,” RJ Challenge leader Scott Kellen (37-22-1 ATS) said. “Minnesota has allowed 27 points per game against the four above-average offenses it has faced, and Arizona has allowed 30 ppg against the six better-than-average offenses it has faced. Vikings lead the league in explosive passing plays. … Perfect conditions inside with two teams that can throw the ball, and we have a fairly low total to get over the number.”
FALCONS (+1½) over Chargers
“The Chargers face a short week on the road after the physicality and high emotion of this year’s Har’bowl loss in Los Angeles Monday night,” said Lou Finocchiaro, riding an 11-4 cover streak in the RJ Challenge. “This is a most challenging spot for the Chargers, for this trip to (Atlanta) precedes a visit to division leader Kansas City next week.
“The Falcons, fighting for the NFC South lead, have lost their last two, but this team scores points at home and is off the bye, putting them in an advantageous spot.”
SAINTS-Rams
Whitelaw and fellow pro bettor Cris Zeniuk are on opposite sides of this one. Zeniuk, 9-2 ATS on his RJ best bets, is siding with the Saints as 2½-point home underdogs, while Whitelaw is backing the Rams.
“The Rams have been great, to bet against,” said Zeniuk (@lasvegascris). “They have the flashy stars, but they have problems on defense. … The Saints have rebounded nicely since the coaching change and will be rested versus the traveling Rams. The Saints are healthier and are using (Taysom) Hill productively again. I’m betting the home team with confidence.”
Whitelaw likes Los Angeles to bounce back from Sunday night’s loss to the Eagles.
“They’re a totally different team since they’ve gotten healthy,” he said. “The Saints have had so many injuries.”
CLEMSON (-2½) over South Carolina
“Clemson still has an outside shot to get into the ACC championship and possibly even the playoff,” said RJ College Challenge leader Alex White (43-21-1 ATS). “South Carolina has won five in a row, but the offense is just average. … (Tigers coach) Dabo Sweeney’s experience in these big games will be the factor.”
BOSTON COLLEGE (-5) over Pitt
“Pitt’s season has unraveled like it has for the NHL Penguins, with four straight losses as the Panthers head to a minor bowl in reverse,” said Bruce Marshall, on an 11-4 ATS run in the RJ Challenge (40-23-2). “Would rather trust a BC side that continues to play hard for (coach) Bill O’Brien and off three of its better efforts of the season.”
TEXAS A&M (+5½) over Texas
Texas-based handicapper Paul Stone likes the Aggies to not only cover the spread as home underdogs, but beat the Longhorns in the rivals’ first meeting in 13 years.
“Texas has looked far from invincible in recent weeks … and I believe the Longhorns will also struggle to run the ball against one of the nation’s premier defensive fronts,” said Stone, on an 8-2 spread streak in the RJ Challenge. “It’s going to be a loud and raucous environment Saturday night at Kyle Field to put it mildly, and I believe the Aggies will emerge victorious.”
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.