What to bet on Monday, with handicapper’s top pick (updated)

The Golden Knights, Dallas Stars, New York Islanders and Tampa Bay Lightning all have 3-1 leads in their conference semifinal series. Dallas and Tampa Bay can close out their series with victories in Game 5 on Monday.

In the NBA, Houston will try to finish off Oklahoma City, and Milwaukee and Miami open their conference semifinal series.

In MLB, 11 games are on tap, but all eyes will be on the transaction wire for any last-minute deals at the trade deadline.

Here’s the betting menu for Monday (odds at the Westgate, updated at 11:45 a.m.):

NBA

(All games at Lake Buena Vista, Florida)

Milwaukee (-5½, total 224, -240 ML) vs. Miami (+200 ML), Game 1, 3:30 p.m.

The top-seeded Bucks are -430 favorites to beat the Heat (+360) in the Eastern Conference semifinal series. Milwaukee won four straight by double digits over Orlando after losing its playoff opener, while Miami won and covered all four games against Indiana. The Heat took two out of three against the Bucks during the regular season, but Milwaukee won their only meeting since the NBA restarted (130-116 on Aug. 6). The most likely series result is the Bucks winning in five games (+250).

Line movement: Total up from 223. Series price down from Bucks -450.

Houston (-5½, 226½, -240) vs. Oklahoma City (+200), Game 6, 6 p.m.

The Rockets regained control of this first-round Western Conference series with a 114-80 victory in Game 5 to take a 3-2 lead. Houston is favored by the most points in this series after the big win, which included the return of star guard Russell Westbrook. The Thunder hit only 7 of 46 3-point attempts (15.2 percent) in the loss. Houston is now -1,200 to win the series (Thunder +750).

Line movement: Total up from 226.

NHL

Tampa Bay (-120, 5½ under -120) vs. Boston (+110), Game 5, 4 p.m. at Toronto

The Lightning put a near-lock on this Eastern Conference semifinal series with a 3-1 victory in Game 4 on Saturday. Bruins backup goaltender Jaroslav Halak has finally cracked, especially in a 7-1 loss in Game 3. He had won four straight after starter Tuuka Rask opted out of the rest of the season, but has since lost three in a row. The games in this series remain lined around pick’em, but Tampa Bay has been the better team. The Lightning are now -1,100 to win the series (Bruins +700).

Line movement: Lightning up from -115. Lightning series price up from -1,000.

Colorado (-130, 6 over -115) vs. Dallas (+120), Game 5, 6:45 p.m. at Edmonton, Alberta

The Avalanche will have to win the second half of a back-to-back to stay alive in this Western Conference semifinal series. The Stars took a 3-0 first-period lead in Game 4 on Sunday en route to a 5-4 victory. Colorado has been favored in every game of the series, but the price has slipped from -165 in Game 1 to -130 in Game 5. The Avalanche were -275 favorites to win the series before it started. Every game in the series has gone over the total. The Stars are now -600 to win the series (Avalanche +450).

MLB

(Pitchers subject to change)

(Note: xFIP is an advanced stat that is a more accurate measure of a pitcher’s performance than ERA.)

Miami (no line) at New York Mets, 10:10 a.m.

Probable pitchers: Miami’s Trevor Rogers (LHP, 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 5.35 xFIP) vs. New York’s Jacob deGrom (RHP, 2-0, 1.80 ERA, 2.28 xFIP)

Note: Rogers is making his second MLB start. He pitched four scorless innings in his debut, allowing one hit with six strikeouts and five walks.

Baltimore (no line) vs. Toronto, 11:07 a.m. at Buffalo, New York

Probable pitchers: Baltimore’s Keegan Akin (LHP, 0-0, 8.10 ERA, 7.27 xFIP) vs. Toronto’s Chase Anderson (RHP, 0-0, 3.68 ERA, 5.06 xFIP)

Note: Akin is making his first MLB start. He has pitched two games in relief this season.

Seattle (+140) at Los Angeles Angels (-150, 9), 1:10 p.m.

Probable pitchers: Seattle’s Marco Gonzales (LHP, 3-2, 3.63 ERA, 4.15 xFIP) vs. Los Angeles’ Jaime Barria (RHP, 0-0, 2.89 ERA, 4.90 xFIP)

St. Louis (+102) at Cincinnati (-112, 9½), 3:30 p.m.

Probable pitchers: St. Louis’ Dakota Hudson (RHP, 0-2, 3.32 ERA, 4.46 xFIP) vs. Cincinnati’s Anthony DeSclafani (RHP, 1-1, 5.71 ERA, 5.39 xFIP)

Line movement: Cincinnati down from -120. Total up from 9 over -120.

Tampa Bay (+130) at New York Yankees (-140, 7½), 4:05 p.m.

Probable pitchers: Tampa Bay’s Tyler Glasnow (RHP, 1-1, 5.14 ERA, 2.74 xFIP) vs. New York’s Gerrit Cole (RHP, 4-1, 3.51 ERA, 3.40 xFIP)

Line movement: New York down from -148. Total down from 8 under -115.

Washington (+128) at Philadelphia (-138, 10½), 4:05 p.m.

Probable pitchers: Washington’s Erick Fedde (RHP, 1-2, 3.57 ERA, 5.57 xFIP) vs. Philadelphia’s Spencer Howard (RHP, 0-1, 6.17 ERA, 5.38 xFIP)

Line movement: Philadelphia up from -125. Total up from 10 over -115.

Atlanta (-190, 9½) at Boston (+175), 4:30 p.m.

Probable pitchers: Atlanta’s Max Fried (LHP, 5-0, 1.35 ERA, 3.56 xFIP) vs. Boston’s Colten Brewer (RHP, 0-2, 4.57 ERA, 4.53 xFIP)

Pittsburgh (no line) at Milwaukee, 4:40 p.m.

Probable pitchers: Pittsburgh’s Trevor Williams (RHP, 1-5, 5.34 ERA, 4.83 xFIP) vs. undecided

Cleveland (-240, 7½ under -120) at Kansas City (+210), 5:05 p.m.

Probable pitchers: Cleveland’s Shane Bieber (RHP, 6-0, 1.35 ERA, 1.57 xFIP) vs. Kansas City’s Brad Keller (RHP, 3-1, 2.08 ERA, 4.63 xFIP)

Line movement: Cleveland up from -230. Juice on total moves from over -120 to under -120.

Chicago White Sox (-128, 9 under -120) at Minnesota (+118), 5:10 p.m.

Probable pitchers: Chicago’s Lucas Giolito (RHP, 3-2, 3.09 ERA, 3.08 xFIP) vs. Minnesota’s Rich Hill (LHP, 1-1, 3.55 ERA, 4.99 xFIP)

Note: Giolito will pitch for the first time since throwing the first no-hitter of the season Tuesday.

Line movement: Chicago down from 1-40. Total up from 8½ over -112.

San Diego (-102) at Colorado (-108, 12 under -115), 6:30 p.m.

Probable pitchers: San Diego’s Garrett Richards (RHP, 1-2, 5.17 ERA, 4.88 xFIP) vs. Colorado’s German Marquez (RHP, 2-4, 4.50 ERA, 3.88 xFIP)

What happened Sunday

NBA

Favorites went 1-2 straight-up and against the spread. Totals went 2-1 to the under.

— Boston (+2) sent a message with a wire-to-wire 112-94 victory over Toronto in Game 1 of their Eastern Conference semifinal series. The game stayed under 217½. The Celtics led 39-23 after the first quarter and never looked back. Boston shot 47 percent from the field and 43.6 percent on 3-pointers while Toronto shot 36.9 and 25 percent, respectively. The Celtics also won the rebounding battle 50-40.

— The Los Angeles Clippers (-9½) finally disposed of Dallas with a 111-97 victory to win their first-round Western Conference series 4-2. The game stayed way under 237 after four straight games in the series went over. Kawhi Leonard had 33 points, 14 rebounds, seven assists and five steals for Los Angeles. Luka Doncic had 38 points for Dallas, which made only 11 of 37 3-point tries (29.7 percent). The Clippers outrebounded the Mavericks 52-42. Dallas also missed seven free throws (10 of 17 at the line) to slip outside the number.

— Denver (+2½) forced a Game 7 in its first-round Western Conference series with a 119-107 victory over Utah. The game went over 219½. The Nuggets have won two straight after the Jazz won three in a row to take a 3-1 series lead. Jamal Murray had 50 points for Denver, hitting 9 of 12 3-pointers. Donovan Mitchell had 44 points for Utah, making 9 of 13 3-pointers. Each team shot 50 percent (exactly 18 of 36) on 3-pointers overall. The Nuggets won the rebounding battle 43-30. Denver was a -4½ favorite in Game 1, then became as high as a +3½ underdog in Game 4 before winning Games 5 and 6 at +2½. We’ll see what the oddsmakers post for Game 7 on Tuesday.

NHL

Favorites went 2-1. Totals went 2-0 to the over with one push.

— Dallas (+115) jumped out to a 3-0 lead in the first period and held on for a 5-4 victory over Colorado to take a 3-1 lead in the Western Conference semifinal series. The game went over 6. The Avalanche outshot the Stars 37-29. Colorado scored twice in the second period to cut the lead to 3-2, but Dallas scored two goals in the first half of the third period to extend the lead. The Avalanche scored with four seconds left to trim the final margin.

— The New York Islanders (-125) continued to take it to top-seeded Philadelphia with a 3-2 victory to take a 3-1 lead in the Eastern Conference semifinal series. The game pushed on the total of 5. After being slight underdogs in the first two games, the sixth-seeded Islanders have won two straight as favorites. Philadelphia outshot New York 38-33 in Game 5. The Islanders are one win away from reaching the conference finals for the first time since 1993.

— The Golden Knights (-195) erased a third-period deficit to beat Vancouver 5-3 to take a 3-1 lead in their Western Conference semifinal series. The game went over 6. The Canucks led 3-2 going to the third period, but the Golden Knights scored three goals in the first 8:29 of the period to regain control. Vegas narrowly outshot Vancouver 33-31. Backup goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury got the win on the second game of a back-to-back.

MLB

Favorites went just 7-8, with big upsets from Pittsburgh (+240 at Milwaukee), Detroit (+195 vs. Minnesota) and Seattle (+180 at the Los Angeles Angels). The New York Yankees swept both games of a doubleheader with the New York Mets as underdogs of +100 and +135.

Totals went 8-5-2 to the over.

Hot Corner handicapper selection

Lightning -1½ (+230)

Dana Lane (@DanaLaneSports, 2-0, +2.0 units): Tampa Bay has proved once again that depth wins in the postseason, with five players with multiple goals in this series against Boston. Since the NHL restarted, the Bruins have been lacking in intensity and desire, starting with starting goaltender Tuuka Rask, who flat out quit. I won’t financially back a team whose players give off the impression that they would rather be at their summer cottages than playing for the Stanley Cup.

Contact Jim Barnes at jbarnes@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0277. Follow @JimBarnesLV on Twitter.