What to bet on Thursday, with pick on Dodgers-Braves (updated)
There is no Thursday NFL game because of coronavirus rescheduling, but bettors have two critical baseball playoff games and a college football matchup to break down.
Here’s the betting menu for Thursday (odds at the Westgate, updated at 11:30 a.m.):
College football
Georgia State (+135) at Arkansas State (-3, 72, -155), 4:30 p.m. (ESPN)
The host Red Wolves welcome the Panthers in a Sun Belt clash. Arkansas State (2-2, 0-1) defeated Central Arkansas 50-27 last week after being blown out by Coastal Carolina 52-23 in its conference opener. The Red Wolves defeated Kansas State 35-31 earlier this season. Georgia State (1-1, 0-1) is coming off a bye. The Panthers lost to Louisiana (Lafayette) 34-31 in overtime in their opener, then defeated East Carolina 49-29 on Oct. 3. Georgia State defeated Arkansas State for the first time in six tries last season.
Line movement: Arkansas State down from -3½. Total down from 73.
MLB
(Pitchers subject to change; listed stats from regular season)
(Note: xFIP is an advanced stat that is a more accurate measure of a pitcher’s performance than ERA.)
Championship Series
American League
Tampa Bay (-140, 9½ under -115) vs. Houston (+130), Game 5, 2:07 p.m. at San Diego (TBS)
Probable pitchers: Tampa Bay’s John Curtiss (RHP, 3-0, 1.80 ERA, 3.57 xFIP) vs. Houston’s Luis Garcia (RHP, 0-1, 2.92 ERA, 5.22 xFIP)
Notes: Houston (+120) stayed alive with a 4-3 victory to cut Tampa Bay’s lead to 3-1 in the ALCS. The game stayed under 8½. George Springer hit a two-run home run in the fifth to break a 2-2 tie. Houston starter Zack Greinke allowed two runs on five hits in six innings with seven strikeouts and one walk. Both teams are planning bullpen games with openers starting for Game 5. Curtiss has pitched 3⅔ straight scoreless innings after giving up five runs to the New York Yankees in two-thirds of an inning in his playoff debut. Garcia, a rookie, will be making his postseason debut.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-220, 9) vs. Atlanta (+200), Game 4, 5:08 p.m. at Arlington, Texas (FS1)
Probable pitchers: Los Angeles’ Clayton Kershaw (LHP, 6-2, 2.16 ERA, 3.05 xFIP) vs. Atlanta’s Bryse Wilson (RHP, 1-0, 4.02 ERA, 5.28 xFIP)
Notes: Los Angeles (-200) roared to life with a 15-3 victory to cut Atlanta’s lead to 2-1 in the NLCS. The game went over 9½ in the first inning. In fact, the game was over, period, in the first inning, as the Dodgers took an 11-0 lead before the Braves came to bat. The Dodgers hit five home runs in the first three innings to take a 15-0 lead. Atlanta starter Kyle Wright didn’t make it out of the first inning, allowing seven of the 11 runs. Los Angeles will try to even the series behind Kershaw, who was scratched from Game 2 because of back spasms but is said to be ready to go. Kershaw is 2-0 in his two starts this postseason with a 1.93 ERA (2.62 xFIP). Wilson will make his postseason debut, opening what is likely to be a bullpen game for the Braves. Look for more analysis and a handicapper’s pick on the game below.
Line movement: Total down from 9½ under -120.
What happened Wednesday
College football
Coastal Carolina (+9, +275 ML) kicked a 40-yard field goal with four seconds left to earn a 30-27 road upset of No. 21 Louisiana (Lafayette). The game stayed just under 58½. A line move from 7½ to as high as 9½ on game day proved incorrect. The game was evenly matched. Coastal Carolina outgained Louisiana by one yard, 414-413. Neither team led by more than seven.
MLB
Favorites went 1-1, and totals split 1-1. Details on the games are included in the Thursday preview above.
Hot Corner handicapper selection
Under 9½ Dodgers-Braves (-120)
Dana Lane (@DanaLaneSports, 9-9, -0.47 units): After an 18-run outburst by the Dodgers, I like to look the opposite way, knowing I’m going to get some value in the number because the public usually jumps right back on what they just witnessed. That’s especially true when the Dodgers pushed the game over before the last out in the top of the first was recorded, giving sharp money decent value on the other side.
One inning does not erase the fact that the Dodger bats have struggled in this series while facing a Braves staff that has been unhittable in the postseason. Things settle down for Game 4.
Contact Jim Barnes at jbarnes@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0277. Follow @JimBarnesLV on Twitter.