What to bet on Thursday, with top pick on MLB (updated)

Here’s the betting menu (odds at the Westgate, updated at 11:15 a.m.):

NFL

Cincinnati (+220 ML) at Cleveland (-6, total 43½, -260 ML), 5:20 p.m.

The host Browns will try to bounce back after a dreadful 38-6 loss at Baltimore to open the season. The Bengals fought to the end before falling 16-13 at home against the Los Angeles Chargers in the first game for quarterback Joe Burrow, the No. 1 overall pick in the draft. The line opened Cleveland -6½ on Sunday before ticking down, and the total has fallen steadily from 45.

NBA

(At Lake Buena Vista, Florida)

Boston (-2½, 209½, -140) vs. Miami (+120), Game 2, 4 p.m.

The third-seeded Celtics are favored again in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals after a 117-114 overtime loss as 2-point favorites in Game 1. Boston has ticked up after opening -1½ for Game 2, while the total slid down from 209½ to 208½ before going back to 209½ on Thursday morning. Game 1 barely went over the 209 total in regulation (212) before landing at 231 in OT. The fifth-seeded Heat are 9-1 straight-up and against the spread in the playoffs. Miami is a -160 favorite to win the series (Celtics +140) after being +110 before Game 1.

Line movement: Total up from 208½. Miami series price up from -150.

NHL

(At Edmonton, Alberta)

Tampa Bay (-165, 5 over -125) vs. New York Islanders (+150), Game 6, 5 p.m.

The Eastern Conference Final has been easy to handicap. When Lightning center Brayden Point plays, Tampa Bay wins. When he doesn’t, the Islanders win. The problem for Game 6 is that it remains uncertain whether the hobbled Point will play. Totals have gone 3-2 to the under in the series. The Lightning are -500 to win one of the next two games and win the series (Islanders +400 to come back).

Line movement: Tampa Bay up from -155 with Point listed as a game-time decision. Juice on total falls from -135 to -125.

MLB

(Pitchers subject to change)

(Note: xFIP is an advanced stat that is a more accurate measure of a pitcher’s performance than ERA.)

Boston (-112, 9½ under -115) at Miami (+102), 10:10 a.m.

Probable pitchers: Boston’s Nathan Eovaldi (RHP, 2-2, 4.82 ERA, 3.82 xFIP) vs. Miami’s Jose Urena (RHP, 0-1, 7.71 ERA, 8.15 xFIP)

Minnesota (-167, 8½ over -115) at Chicago White Sox (+157), 11:10 a.m.

Probable pitchers: Minnesota’s Kenta Maeda (RHP, 5-1, 2.43 ERA, 2.87 xFIP) vs. Chicago’s Reynaldo Lopez (RHP, 1-2, 5.52 ERA, 6.26 xFIP)

Arizona (+144) at Los Angeles Angels (-154, 10 under -120), 1:10 p.m.

Probable pitchers: Arizona’s Alex Young (LHP, 2-3, 4.42 ERA, 4.97 xFIP) vs. Los Angeles’ Griffin Canning (RHP, 0-3, 4.57 ERA, 5.05 xFIP)

Line movement: Los Angeles down from -161.

San Francisco (-124, 9 over -125) vs. Seattle (+114), 1:10 p.m. at San Francisco

Probable pitchers: San Francisco’s Tyler Anderson (LHP, 2-3, 4.50 ERA, 5.92 xFIP) vs. Seattle’s Nick Margevicius (LHP, 1-3, 5.34 ERA, 4.32 xFIP)

Note: Game was moved from Seattle because of air quality issues. Seattle still plays as the home team.

Line movement: San Francisco down sharply from -144. Total now juiced to over after being under -115.

Tampa Bay (-190, 6½ under -135) at Baltimore (+175), 1:35 p.m. (first game of seven-inning doubleheader)

Probable pitchers: Tampa Bay’s Blake Snell (LHP, 4-1, 3.23 ERA, 3.16 xFIP) vs. Baltimore’s Dean Kremer (RHP, 1-0, 1.64 ERA, 4.41 xFIP)

Baltimore (+165) vs. Tampa Bay (-180, 8 over -115), about 4:35 p.m. (second game of seven-inning doubleheader)

Probable pitchers: Baltimore’s Bruce Zimmermann (LHP, major league debut) vs. undecided

Note: Tampa Bay plays as the home team despite the game being in Baltimore. Tampa Bay has not declared a starter.

Toronto (+205) at New York Yankees (-230, 9½ over -115), 4:05 p.m.

Probable pitchers: Toronto’s Chase Anderson (RHP, 0-1, 5.81 ERA, 4.39 xFIP) vs. New York’s Masahiro Tanaka (RHP, 2-2, 3.16 ERA, 4.35 xFIP)

Line movement: New York up from -220.

New York Mets (+114) at Philadelphia (-124, 7½ over -115), 4:05 p.m.

Probable pitchers: New York’s Seth Lugo (RHP, 2-3, 2.63 ERA, 2.26 xFIP) vs. Philadelphia’s Aaron Nola (RHP, 5-3, 2.40 ERA, 2.44 xFIP)

Line movement: Total now juiced to over after being 7½ -110.

St. Louis (-157, 8½ over -115) at Pittsburgh (+147), 4:05 p.m.

Probable pitchers: St. Louis’ Dakota Hudson (RHP, 3-2, 2.92 ERA, 4.18 xFIP) vs. Pittsburgh’s Steven Brault (LHP, 0-3, 5.06 ERA, 5.25 xFIP)

Line movement: Total now juiced to over after being 8½ -110.

Texas (+210) at Houston (-240, 9), 4:10 p.m.

Probable pitchers: Texas’ Jordan Lyles (RHP, 1-4, 7.80 ERA, 6.19 xFIP) vs. Houston’s Framber Valdez (LHP, 3-3, 4.08 ERA, 3.33 xFIP)

Line movement: Total down from 9½ under -115.

Cleveland (-290, 7½ under -120) at Detroit (+250), 4:10 p.m.

Probable pitchers: Cleveland’s Shane Bieber (RHP, 7-1, 1.53 ERA, 1.95 xFIP) vs. Detroit’s Casey Mize (RHP, 0-1, 5.85 ERA, 4.94 xFIP)

Line movement: Cleveland up from -270.

Los Angeles Dodgers (-160, 12 under -115) at Colorado (+150), 5:40 p.m.

Probable pitchers: Los Angeles’ Julio Urias (LHP, 3-0, 3.53 ERA, 4.84 xFIP) vs. Colorado’s Kyle Freeland (LHP, 2-1, 3.54 ERA, 4.23 xFIP)

Line movement: Los Angeles down from -166. Total up from 11½ over -120.

What happened Wednesday

There were no NBA or NHL games for the first time since July 29.

MLB

Favorites and underdogs split 8-8, with the biggest upsets coming from Texas (+200 at Houston) and Arizona (+185 at the Los Angeles Angels). Totals went 9-6-1 to the under.

Hot Corner handicapper selection

Under 7½ Mets-Phillies

Dana Lane (@DanaLaneSports, 6-7, -1.47 units): Mets starter Seth Lugo doesn’t have a record to show off (2-3), but he does own an impressive 2.63 ERA while rotating between the bullpen and a starting role. Lugo has allowed three earned runs just once in his four starts, giving him a 1.96 ERA as a starter. He’ll face off against Aaron Nola, whose numbers have been even more impressive, including 77 strikeouts in 56⅓ innings.

Five of the last seven meetings between these teams have resulted in an under.

Contact Jim Barnes at jbarnes@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0277. Follow @JimBarnesLV on Twitter.