Go with Oregon to cover spread
Editor’s note: Texas-based handicapper Paul Stone of Vegas Sports Authority is providing weekly college football analysis for the Review-Journal this season.
One might suggest Oregon could be looking ahead to next weekend’s trip to “The Big House” when it takes on Big Ten power Michigan.
But considering the Ducks finished last season with four consecutive losses, including a 38-8 setback to Brigham Young in the Las Vegas Bowl, handicapper Paul Stone expects Oregon coach Mike Bellotti will have his team focused to take care of business today against Conference USA visitor Houston.
Stone (vegassportsauthority.com) said to lay the 16 points and back the Ducks.
The Cougars return 13 starters, but one of the departed players was four-year starting quarterback Kevin Kolb, who was selected in the second round of the NFL Draft by the Philadelphia Eagles.
“Kolb played for Houston coach Art Briles in high school, so he actually had seven or eight years in that complex, hurry-up offense,” Stone said. “I think Houston is going to experience a significant drop on offense in the early going.”
Oregon returns senior quarterback Dennis Dixon and has a group of physical receivers, led by 6-foot-5-inch, 240-pound Jaison Williams.
The Cougars, who lost their top two defensive backs, showed some vulnerability defending passing teams last year.
Also, the Ducks are 9-5 against the spread the past five seasons in nonconference games.
Stone’s other plays for today (home team in CAPS):
• NEBRASKA (-21) over Unr: The Wolf Pack’s “Pistol” offense might be firing blanks, Stone said. UNR is down to its third-string center and will be starting inexperienced sophomore Nick Graziano at quarterback.
If that’s not enough bad news, middle linebacker Ezra Butler, who had 7 1/2 sacks last year and was a first-team all-conference choice, will miss the game.
UNR’s defense has allowed at least 4.0 yards per carry in each of the past six seasons.
Brandon Jackson left one year early for the NFL, but Stone said the Cornhuskers still have a solid one-two punch at tailback with Marlon Lucky and Cody Glenn.
• Arizona (+4) over BRIGHAM YOUNG: The Cougars are coming off an 11-2 campaign in which they closed the season with 10 straight wins. But BYU’s offense no longer boasts the arm of record-setting quarterback John Beck or the legs of 1,000-yard rusher Curtis Brown, and also lost its top four pass catchers from a year ago.
The Wildcats, on the other hand, have most of their top skill performers back and also feature a senior-dominated defense.
“The Pac-10 is probably the best performing league against the spread in nonconference play,” Stone said. “This is a pivotal year for Arizona coach Mike Stoops, and I’ll put the points in my back pocket and take the BCS team with the veteran quarterback.”
• CALIFORNIA (-6) over Tennessee: The Golden Bears have had a full year to stew over last year’s embarrassing, season-opening 35-18 whipping at Tennessee. Worse yet, the game was not as close as the final score.
This is not the same Tennessee team, however, especially on offense. The Volunteers lost 1,300-yard wide receiver Robert Meachem one season early to the NFL and also will be without the services of speedy sophomore tailback LaMarcus Coker.
“I typically don’t place a whole lot of emphasis on revenge,” Stone said, “but Cal has been focused on this game since the start of spring training.”
• ARIZONA STATE (-15) over San Jose State: The Spartans went 9-4 and made some noise in the Western Athletic Conference last year, but they also allowed 418 total yards to rival Stanford.
The Cardinal amassed more than 226 yards total offense only once in the next nine games, so Stone said to keep San Jose State’s bowl season in perspective. The Spartans did not beat a single Division I-A team that finished the season with a winning record.
The Sun Devils have far superior athletes, and the atmosphere surrounding coach Dennis Erickson’s first game should provide an extra jolt of adrenaline.
“Arizona State is a very competitive Pac-10 team with a third-year starting quarterback, and has too many offensive weapons for the Spartans,” Stone said.
COMPILED BY REVIEW-JOURNAL SPORTS WRITER MATT YOUMANS