Carlson, Raiders will try to take advantage of new kickoff rule
Of the 90 kickoffs from Daniel Carlson last year, 33 were returned by the opposing team. Of those, the Raiders limited opponents to 20.1 yards per return, the third-fewest in the NFL.
Carlson’s ability to leave kicks just short of the end zone and the ability of the Raiders’ special teams units to cover them became a useful weapon.
But that weapon might get taken away depending on how teams handle the new one-year kickoff rule that will place the ball at the 25-yard line on all fair catches on kickoffs behind that yard line.
Before this season, teams simply got possession of the ball at the point of the fair catch on punts and kickoffs. And on kickoffs, in particular, it was extremely rare to see a returner call for a fair catch outside of the touchback zone in the end zone.
Instead, most returners simply took their chance by returning the kick as far as they could to provide the team with the best possible field position.
Now all the returner has to do is wave a hand, and his team is gifted a more favorable field position. As a result, the proficiency of a kicker like Carlson to tuck the ball into a corner inside the opponent’s 5-yard line, and his teammates’ hustle to tackle the returner ahead of the 25-yard line, will be moot in 2023 simply by the returner calling for a fair catch.
What might seem like a minor rule change could have huge implications. And whatever receiving teams opt to do, you can count on some countermoves from the kickoff teams.
“Right now, we have to get through the preseason, in my personal opinion, and we have to see how this thing plays itself out, this new rule,” Raiders special teams coach Tom McMahon said. “It’s new to us, so I can’t give you how it is going to impact us.”
Said Carlson: “It’s going to be interesting to see how it gets used, how it gets played.”
On one hand, there is an understanding and appreciation of making the game safer, and the kickoff, in particular, has always been one of the most dangerous plays in the NFL. In fact, the league claims it has evidence to show 20 concussions occurred on kickoffs last year alone.
The league believes the new rule will reduce the return rate on kickoffs from 38 percent to 31 percent and the concussion rate will drop by 15 percent.
“Player safety is huge,” Carlson said.
On the other hand, the goal is to win games. And the quest to do so — and the importance of creating more favorable situations over the last couple of seasons — motivated some teams to strategically opt to leave kicks short of the end zone, then use their coverage skills to stop the return before the 25-yard line.
The thought process was obvious: the farther opponents have to travel to score a touchdown or kick a field goal, the less their chance of meeting their objective.
The Raiders were one of the teams that leaned heavily into that strategy
“Not only for field position, but also for kind of the momentum after a score to go pin someone down inside the 20,” Carlson said. “I think that’s a huge play for a team to set their defense up and to get guys fired up.”
Just don’t count on coaches and players simply letting the rule slide without figuring out a way to either manage or circumvent it in a way that benefits them
“I think it might add another wrinkle to the game that could make things a little bit more strategic,” Raiders punter A.J. Cole predicted.
Said Carlson: “We’ll just have to adjust along with all the other teams in the league and try and figure out ways to take advantage of the new rules, just like offense and defense do when rule changes happen with them.”
For instance, will returners merely wave their hand for the fair catch when the ball is kicked inside the 5-yard line? Or will their competitive spirit convince them they are good enough to return the ball beyond the 25?
In addition, will kickers try to master the squib kick — a kick that flies low to the ground and eventually skips off the turf — to negate the fair catch altogether? Remember, by rule, any ball that hits the ground is no longer eligible for a fair catch.
Count on Carlson, who has adjusted over the years to the various rule changes to help create an edge for the Raiders, to kick around plenty of ideas and strategies to make the best of the latest changes.
“You want to be able to perform at the highest level and not be limited by rules,” Carlson said. “And so, we’re trying to figure out how to do that now and roll with the punches.”
Contact Vincent Bonsignore at vbonsignore@reviewjournal.com. Follow @VinnyBonsignore on Twitter.