How do the Raiders get the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft?
As counterintuitive as it may sound, many Raiders fans are rooting for their favorite team to lose to the Jaguars on Sunday at Allegiant Stadium.
And they should be.
Huh?
Believe it or not, it makes sense.
Those fans’ eyes will also be on various stadiums across the NFL, hoping every team the 2-12 Raiders have played so far this year loses. They’ll also be rooting for the 3-11 Browns, Patriots, Titans and Panthers.
Plenty of attention will also be on the Falcons’ game against the Giants in Atlanta. It’s the most important matchup on the Week 16 schedule for the Raiders besides their own.
That’s because the team’s primary goal this season is no longer making the playoffs.
It hasn’t been for some time. It should be to secure the No. 1 overall pick in April’s draft and earn the opportunity to take a potential franchise quarterback that can lift the organization to new heights.
Sunday’s game will be critical in that endeavor.
The Raiders are slated to pick second overall, behind the Giants (2-12), as things stand. But the Jaguars are one of five 3-11 teams lurking just behind those two. One Raiders win could cause them to tumble down the draft order.
Thus, a loss Sunday would help matters. It goes against everything every fan has been taught. But it may beat the alternative.
Two quarterback prospects, Shedeur Sanders of Colorado and Cam Ward of Miami (Florida), are considered above the rest in this year’s class.
That means the Raiders need a top-two pick to ensure there’s a big payoff for one of their worst seasons in recent memory.
It’s a race to the bottom. One that just might be worth it.
It’s a complicated fight to handicap.
Everything from win-loss record to strength of schedule could come into play to determine who ends up with the top pick.
For instance, the Giants have the tiebreaker over the Raiders for now because New York has a weaker strength of schedule.
That’s not set in stone, however. The Raiders should be rooting for every opponent they’ve faced this year to lose on Sunday. And they want every team the Giants have played to win out.
It’s a complex and confusing system.
But here’s a cheat sheet on what to focus on the rest of the way:
Raiders must lose
The Raiders’ path to the top overall pick starts out simple: They should lose their final three games.
After facing the Jaguars on Sunday, they travel to face the Saints (5-9) in Week 17 and host the Chargers (9-6) in Week 18. Dropping all three contests won’t guarantee the Raiders the top pick.
They would still need the Giants to win at least one more game or for their strength of schedule to become worse than New York’s. That won’t be determined until the end of the season.
The X account Doug Analytics gives the Raiders the third-best chances of ending up with the No. 1 pick at 19.5 percent, behind the Giants (47.5 percent) and the Patriots (22.2 percent).
Those odds reflect a schedule that’s not too daunting the rest of the way.
The Jaguars have lost six of their last seven games.
New Orleans has lost two of three and may be without quarterback Derek Carr, who has a left-hand injury, for a second straight game Monday against the Packers.
Los Angeles could clinch a playoff berth this week if the Dolphins and Colts lose. The Chiefs have already won the AFC West, so there’s a good chance the Chargers will have little or nothing to play for against the Raiders.
The Giants, on the other hand, play the Falcons (7-7), Colts (6-8) and Eagles (12-2). Atlanta and Indianapolis are still fighting for a playoff berth, while Philadelphia is in the mix for the No. 1 seed and a bye in the NFC.
Any Raiders win could cause them to slide a long way down the draft order given the logjam at the bottom of the standings. It’s possible for them to pick as low as 10th by the end of the year.
What to root for
The Raiders could get a big lift Sunday from the Falcons, who are set to give rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. his first NFL start against the Giants.
A New York win would push the Raiders to the bottom of the standings. It would also weaken their strength of schedule since they lost to Atlanta on Monday night.
The Raiders will keep rooting for as many Giants wins as possible the final three weeks of the season. They’ll be cheering for the Patriots, Panthers, Titans and Browns as well.
Moving ahead of even a few of those teams in the standings — namely fellow quarterback-hungry franchises like New York, Carolina, Tennessee and Cleveland — could prevent the Raiders from taking one of the top two quarterbacks.
Sanders, the son of Hall of Fame player and Colorado coach Deion Sanders, is a poised, accurate passer that’s completed 74.2 percent of his throws for 35 touchdowns and eight interceptions this year.
Ward, a Heisman Trophy finalist, is a playmaker that completed 67.4 percent of his passes for 36 touchdowns and seven interceptions this season.
Bother are considered the prizes of a shallow crop of quarterbacks. And the class got thinner when Penn State passer Drew Allar decided to return for his senior season instead of entering the draft.
There may not be another quarterback taken in the first round in April besides Sanders and Ward. And the Raiders learned last year, in their failed attempts to trade up for LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels, how difficult it is to maneuver to the top of the board.
They could make things easier this season by being at the top of the draft to begin with. For the Raiders, that starts with losing Sunday.
No pain, no gain, remember?
Contact Vincent Bonsignore at vbonsignore@reviewjournal.com. Follow @VinnyBonsignore on X.