Pac-12 will be rooting for USC against Notre Dame

By Brent Musburger Special to the Review-Journal

7 years ago

Notre Dame quarterback Brandon Wimbush breaks out of the grasp of Miami (Ohio) defensive back Matt Merimee during the first half of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Sept. 30, 2017, in South Bend, Ind. (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)

Southern California quarterback Sam Darnold, back, runs to avoid the tackle by Utah defensive tackle Filipo Mokofisi during the second half of an NCAA college football game in Los Angeles, Saturday, Oct. 14, 2017. USC won 28-27. (AP Photo/Kelvin Kuo)

Southern California quarterback Sam Darnold (14) in action during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Utah in Los Angeles, Saturday, Oct. 14, 2017. (AP Photo/Kelvin Kuo)

Southern California quarterback Sam Darnold passes the ball during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Utah in Los Angeles, Saturday, Oct. 14, 2017. (AP Photo/Kelvin Kuo)

Southern California quarterback Sam Darnold (14) in action during the second half of an NCAA college football game against Utah in Los Angeles, Saturday, Oct. 14, 2017. USC won 28-27. (AP Photo/Kelvin Kuo)

Notre Dame quarterback Brandon Wimbush runs for a 16-yard touchdown as Michigan State’s Raequan Williams (99) trails during the first quarter of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Sept. 23, 2017, in East Lansing, Mich. (AP Photo/Al Goldis)

Notre Dame quarterback Brandon Wimbush breaks out of the grasp of Miami (Ohio) defensive back Matt Merimee during the first half of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Sept. 30, 2017, in South Bend, Ind. (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)

It isn’t often that 11 of the Pac-12 teams cheer for Southern California to win a football game. But Saturday at Notre Dame is an exception for good reason.

Along with being a season-defining game for the Trojans, it will either stamp the Pac-12 as a serious contender for college football’s final four or put it on the road to being eliminated.

This is a solid Notre Dame team that is favored by 3½ points with an over-under of 65. The Irish are 5-1 straight up and against the spread. The Trojans’ only loss came at Washington State, but they are 1-6 ATS.

One piece of good news for the Trojans is that they are used to winning lately in this rivalry. This is their 89th meeting with Notre Dame, and while the Irish have a 46-37-5 edge, USC has won 11 of the past 15. A year ago, the Trojans blew out the Irish 45-27 at the Coliseum.

Quarterback play will be huge, with Notre Dame welcoming back Brandon Wimbush. He missed last week’s win at North Carolina with an injured foot. Clearly, the Irish were getting him healthy for USC.

The key to a Trojans repeat will be quarterback Sam Darnold. His giveaways are alarming. He has thrown nine interceptions, and last week in the first half against Utah he was charged with three fumbles, one of which was returned for a touchdown.

That was the bad Sam Darnold. The good Sam Darnold came back in the second half and led the Trojans on scoring drives of 98, 88 and 93 yards.

The Irish have forced 14 turnovers and have a plus-1.17 takeaway margin, which puts them in the top 10 nationally. They also have 13 sacks and are allowing opponents to convert only 35 percent on third down. They have given up 16.8 points a game, which puts them in the nation’s top 15.

Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly rejuvenated his offense by bringing in coordinator Chip Long from Memphis. Long replaced DeShone Kizer and Malik Zaire with Wimbush. He’s not going to beat a team passing the ball, throwing for only six touchdowns.

But more important, Wimbush has thrown only two interceptions. Where the Trojans really have to be on guard is the ground game, because Wimbush is always a threat to run. He has rushed for 403 yards (5.9 yards per carry) and eight touchdowns, including a 207-yard, four-touchdown performance at Boston College.

This is a loser-out game from the Final Four, because no team has reached the playoff with two losses. That’s one reason that NBC wisely scheduled this game for prime time.

I favor the Irish, because the Trojans have not been good at protecting the football.

Super Bowl rematch

This weekend should be a win-win for NBC. On the heels of the Trojans and Irish will be a Super Bowl rematch on “Sunday Night Football” between the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons.

New England is a 3-point home favorite with a total of 56. This comes 8½ months after we were treated to the Patriots’ incredible 34-28 comeback win in the first overtime game in Super Bowl history.

Clearly, these are not the same two powerful teams from last season. New England went 16-2 straight up a year ago with a 15-3 ATS record. Now the Patriots are 4-2 but 2-4 ATS. Atlanta is struggling at 3-2 and 2-3 ATS.

It is rare when you can back the Patriots at home giving less than a touchdown. To me you have two choices: You either back Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, or you stay away from the game. The Falcons have not shown that they have found a remedy for that Super Bowl hangover.

Brent Musburger’s betting column appears Saturday in the Las Vegas Review-Journal. His show on the Vegas Stats & Information Network can be heard on SiriusXM 204 and livestreamed at reviewjournal.com/vegas-stats-information-network.