Cotto tough but lacks talent to win tonight

Freddie Roach was worried. He had watched Miguel Cotto's earlier fights on film, watched the power and skill and confidence of a world champion, watched him cut off the quickness of Shane Mosley like a coyote might a jack rabbit's attempt at escape, watched the jabs and uppercuts and counters and that thunderous left hook.

Then he watched the two fights following Cotto's first loss. Freddie Roach isn't so worried today.

"I don't think he has had enough time to come back from a beating like he took against (Antonio Margarito)," Roach said. "A beating like that changes your life. His confidence isn't what it used to be. He isn't invincible any more. He telegraphs punches now and has no one correcting his mistakes. I'm not worried at all.

"This guy can't beat my guy."

Few are picking him to do so and yet most are still giving him a chance. It's how a megafight should be, with a little uncertainty wrapped amid all the hype.

Manny Pacquiao has spent much of the buildup to tonight's WBO welterweight title encounter with Cotto at the MGM Grand Garden at or near a 3-1 favorite, but even those favoring a win for the Filipino star can't help but permit the notion that Cotto could prove too big, too strong, too good.

Roach isn't buying it, and one thing Pacquiao's trainer has been proficient at of late is correctly judging how a fight involving his guy will play out. He did so against Oscar De La Hoya. He did so against Ricky Hatton.

He has the winnings to prove it.

Roach says he will own three betting slips for tonight's fight, ones that predict a Pacquiao victory in round 1, 9 or 10. He is convinced this should be Pacquiao-De La Hoya all over again, only not against a washed-up legend who will be exposed by age.

One infamous beating, Roach insists, will expose enough.

It remains the one question about Cotto no one can answer, because while he has earned wins against a nobody (Michael Jennings) and a somebody (Joshua Clottey) since losing to the perhaps plaster-filled gloves of Margarito, he hasn't opposed anyone on the level of Pacquiao since departing the ring that evening here in 2008 for a local hospital.

"I think Cotto has a big shot," Top Rank chairman Bob Arum said. "Cotto can take punishment. He has that left to the body and head. The one thing we don't know about Manny is if he can take those kinds of punches, because he has never had to.

"Can Cotto win? You're damn right he can."

Not if the fight is decided in the center of the ring. If this is really De La Hoya revisited, then expect Pacquiao to do everything humanely possible to stay off the ropes.

He has promised Roach that will be the case, promised not to get pushed into a spot he can't flee, promised expert footwork would ultimately wear down Cotto.

De La Hoya said that when he fought Pacquiao, it was as if he was defending 10 different men, that he looked one way and Pacquiao came from another, that the punches were so fast he couldn't keep up.

This is what will happen to Cotto tonight.

There is a chance Pacquiao's stature and talent have been overly inflated following his last two fights. De La Hoya was a shot fighter who quit on his stool. Hatton was so far out of his league against Pacquiao and, before that, Floyd Mayweather Jr., the only thing really worth remembering about him are those wacky Brits singing "Walking in a Hatton Wonderland" throughout the streets and bars of Las Vegas.

So there is a little mystery to Pacquiao tonight, also.

Is he as good as everyone thinks?

My guess is, yes.

"Cotto is a slow starter, so if he would win the first few rounds, it could be a long night for us," Roach said. "But Manny is right where I want him to be. The game plan is 100 percent inside his head. He knows exactly what to do in every situation. Cotto has a left hook. That's all I see. It's his only weapon and easy to take away.

"He can't beat my guy."

His guy wins again by TKO in the ninth.

Then we can start talking Pacquiao-Mayweather.

Then things really get fun around here.

Las Vegas Review-Journal sports columnist Ed Graney can be reached at egraney@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-4618. He also can be heard weeknights from 11 p.m. to 1 a.m. on "The Sports Scribes" on KDWN-AM (720) and www.kdwn.com.