Graney: Can Raiders avoid another midseason meltdown?

EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J.

Just about now in recent NFL seasons, the Raiders have come crashing down with the force of a tidal wave.

The gravitational forces of earth, sun and moon, along with less-than-inspired play by the Raiders, have turned promising starts into demoralizing finishes.

There has been just one playoff appearance in 18 years. Yet for a third straight season, the stars seem to be aligning for a return.

Been there, haven’t done that since a 2016 wild-card loss to Houston.

The Raiders — who engage the Giants at MetLife Stadium on Sunday — were 6-4 two years go. Lost five of their last six.

They were 6-3 last season. Finished 8-8.

They are now 5-2 and sit alone atop the AFC West, having beaten Denver and Philadelphia in consecutive games before a bye week. Excuse those within the organization for not yet making plans for playoff festivities.

“You know, all we are is on two one-game winning streaks,” said owner Mark Davis. “The team you start the season with isn’t always the one you end with. Look at the season-ending injuries to (Saints quarterback) Jameis Winston and (Titans running back) Derrick Henry.

“So while we’re excited to be where we are, we have 10 games left.”

Why will (could) things be different this time?

Two factors stand out — the potential for a veteran quarterback to continue what has been stellar play and a much criticized defense from past seasons having suddenly appeared a more-than-competent unit.

Here’s a closer look at both:

Derek Carr

I know. See’s Candies doesn’t offer samples this small.

But two games after Jon Gruden resigned as head coach, the combination of Carr and offensive coordinator Greg Olson calling plays has made for an attack averaging 33.5 points over consecutive victories.

Carr isn’t the reason potential playoff runs were flushed down the stretch in 2019 and ’20. Hardly. He more than held up his end statistically.

Now he’s on fire. Carr is fifth in the league in passing yards, and is second in per-game average (342.1 yards). Only one player — a fellow named Brady — owns a higher average (331.3).

Carr is also completing 67.7 percent of his passes and has a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 12-5.

You can win playoff games with him.

You can win multiple ones with him playing like this.

Defense

Former coordinator Paul Guenther liked to say that if a defense could work its way into a top-15 ranking opposite an offense that consistently produced, a playoff berth was all but sealed.

The Raiders never came close during his time on the defensive part. They sure are now.

You’re looking at the 13th-rated defense and one that is eighth in turnover margin at plus-4. Which means the Raiders are not only much better under first-year coordinator Gus Bradley, but a whole lot more opportunistic.

I’m not certain Casey Hayward can remain the league’s No. 1-rated cornerback by Pro Football Focus for an entire season; or fifth-round pick Nate Hobbs the No. 5 cornerback; or Maxx Crosby the No. 2 edge rusher.

Or if rookie Tre’von Moehrig can appear this settled at safety and Johnathan Abram this much better as a hybrid safety closer to the line off scrimmage.

But you figure any drops in production won’t be precipitous.

Is this level of individual success sustainable? Probably not.

Does it matter in the long run of 17 regular-season games? Maybe not.

The Raiders are creating enough pressure up front — they rate 13th in sacks with 18 — to make you believe this is no fluke. If that’s true, odds of another second-half meltdown drop dramatically.

The schedule gets much tougher. But more than not, it seems as though the waters at season’s end have a chance to be far calmer and welcoming this time.

Sure would be a change in swells.

Ed Graney is a Sigma Delta Chi Award winner for sports column writing and can be reached at egraney@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-4618. He can be heard on “The Press Box,” ESPN Radio 100.9 FM and 1100 AM, from 7 a.m. to 10 a.m. Monday through Friday. Follow @edgraney on Twitter.