Only the unknown can alter expectations

Expect: To consider probable or certain.

There you have it. The difference between UNLV basketball under coach Lon Kruger before Friday morning and from now until March.

It’s not as simple as a few definitions have you believe. If talent alone separated the best from others, far more people would recognize Gary Oldman than Ben Affleck.

Winning is that family recipe passed down through generations, where it takes more than the main ingredient to produce something magical.

It’s the same with a great shooting guard and a few young but promising centers. You still need a little luck to be really good.

The Rebels used NCAA Tournament appearances the last two seasons as a way to restore the program’s reputation as one that annually should anticipate such fortunes rather than merely dream about them.

Now comes the difficult part — not hoping for expectations but rather living up to them.

“Nobody,” said senior forward Joe Darger, “will overlook us.”

Skill isn’t an issue for UNLV. The Rebels, who officially opened practice several hours before welcoming a public viewing at the Thomas & Mack Center, have enough to win a Mountain West Conference title, which they have been picked to do so. Coaching isn’t an issue. The guy they have is terrific. Home-court advantage isn’t an issue. Las Vegas has become the league’s toughest stop next to Provo, Utah.

This is the issue: the unknown.

It is always the issue for a team with seemingly every desirable part to produce memorable results.

“We won’t approach anything much differently,” Kruger said. “Our seniors do a pretty good job of understanding that it still relates to how hard we work, how much we invest, how much progress we make. I don’t remember anyone in December ever saying where you were picked in conference.”

Hype knows no bounds, especially in a city where many view the closest thing to a professional team as the one Kruger coaches. When it comes to UNLV basketball, most are as myopic as they are passionate.

For them, it will not be about if UNLV wins games this season, but by how much. It will not be about if the Rebels crack the top 25, but how high they travel within it.

It’s on Kruger not to temper the enthusiasm and impractical expectations of fans (an impossible task), but rather to keep his team’s collective heads on straight.

He can closely forecast how good UNLV could be, how much its added size and depth might translate into victories, how valuable three senior starters should prove. He can walk into practice today and probably come close to guessing the number of games the Rebels will win if encountering no unexpected hurdles.

But he can’t foresee injuries or off-court distractions. He can’t know how a sprained ankle here or twisted knee there or some sudden disciplinary problem might influence how far into March the Rebels will play.

But he sure can remind his players of those recently stung by the latter.

San Diego State today is without its best player (Lorrenzo Wade), suspended indefinitely while facing a felony first-degree burglary charge. The Aztecs also are talented enough to win the conference, but now must deal with a distraction that could disturb them all season.

Never discount the importance of chemistry when building a contender. Never reduce the significance of a team that is as boring away from the court as it is special on it.

A basketball program with its sights set on a conference championship and more is like those medical test results you await.

No news is good news.

“Any time something happens internally with us or externally to another team, you point out again the importance of making good decisions and thinking about consequences and sometimes just walking away,” Kruger said. “You prepare them and yet can’t always anticipate what might happen.

“We tell them Friday and Saturday nights worry us the most, because that’s when there is a potential to make decisions that will reflect badly on yourself, your school, your program, your community. But once again, having good senior leadership is huge. I think this year’s group will do a pretty good job with that.”

The unknown is a scary topic for a team with this much promise, but it beats the alternative to death.

Might: What UNLV basketball used to be under Kruger.

Expect: What it is today.

The recipe appears intact. With a little luck, something magical just might occur.

Ed Graney can be reached at 702-383-4618 or egraney@reviewjournal.com.