Scruggs working to become big hit

Nothing tells the story like an imposing statistic: 1-in-16,000. Those are the odds anyone with dreams of playing major league baseball must confront about making a roster and earning more in per diem than the average American household's annual income.

Xavier Scruggs to this point has done everything possible to be much closer to the 1. He has worked hard, improved his skills, elevated his numbers each collegiate season and kept his mind open to change, which means he is like hundreds.

"There are scouts that say good things about me and some that don't say much good at all," he said. "But I have high expectations for myself."

Which means he is like thousands.

UNLV entered its final homestand of another losing season Friday night, the Rebels a forgettable 73-95 over the last three years before New Mexico arrived this weekend.

But while ERAs climb, losses follow and whispers grow louder about the end of coach Buddy Gouldsmith's tenure being more in sight than ever, UNLV's best player has refused to allow his team's undistinguished ways to influence his chase.

The Rebels again have proven themselves a nonfactor, while Scruggs has been terrific. It has been a season-long theme: They lose; he mashes.

He plays on a team that exists squarely in the middle of a bad baseball conference and yet should be considered as much a sure thing for Mountain West Player of the Year as David Beckham for extracting adolescent shrieks.

Scruggs is a junior first baseman who entered the weekend leading the league in average (.415), slugging percentage (.819), on-base percentage (.509), home runs (18), RBIs (60) and total bases (154). He is second in runs, doubles and sacrifice flies, third in hits and fourth in walks, impressive when you consider he hasn't been pitched to honestly in weeks.

But it has reached the point where you wonder how it will all translate to the world of wood bats, where swings are continually dissected (word is, Scruggs' has too much length for a player 6 feet 1 inch) and defensive limitations uncovered (his is average foot speed at best), where inflated college numbers are often exposed as more a result of bad pitching and aluminum weapons than superior talent.

Scruggs right now is merely one of numerous outstanding hitters with an opportunity to play at a higher level, a chance improved when Gouldsmith switched his star from third base to first this season. It wasn't a move Scruggs welcomed, but one he might forever appreciate as he makes his way through the taxing and populated dugouts of minor league baseball.

"He is an adequate to potentially above-average first baseman right now," Gouldsmith said. "He was spending so much time on his defense at third base, it affected his offense. Once he made the switch, his offense took off.

"When you talk about a guy hitting in the middle of your order on a team that hasn't had success and the fact he has managed to sustain these kind (of numbers), it's really a tribute to him. When you think about hitting .415 and someone who walks a lot and gets on base and with all those (major league) numbers guys, I would think somebody would get excited out there."

Scruggs' is a common story: Guy arrives in college all power and no discipline. Thinks he can hit anything within five feet of the strike zone out of the ballpark and actually tries. Begins to embrace things such as pitch recognition and patience. Raises his average from .214 as a freshman to .289 as a sophomore to over .400 now.

Guy arrives in college all power and not much else and in time is projected to be taken between the fifth and 10th rounds of this year's MLB draft, after which he will undoubtedly sign because players with his stats drafted in their junior year return to school about as often as you drive away from the gas station happy.

"You don't watch him and say, 'Wow, there is a prototypical big league swing.' " Gouldsmith said. "It's going to be interesting. If someone calls me and says, 'He went in the fourth round,' that would be great. If he doesn't go until the ninth or 10th and teams hold back a little, I could see that. He has expectations and should with how well he has played. But whether they are realized to the level he wants is still a question mark."

Xavier Scruggs has given himself a chance. It's the first step. He's closer to 1 than 16,000.

Now the real work begins.

Ed Graney's column is published Sunday, Wednesday, Thursday and Saturday. He can be reached at 702-383-4618 or egraney@reviewjournal.com.