Brady scandal, props big parts of Super Bowl spectacle
A few days ago, Tom Brady’s future was shrouded in uncertainty. Would he flee the country — thus landing a spot on the FBI’s Ten Most Wanted fugitives list — or confess to the hideous modern-day NFL crime of deflating footballs for a big playoff game?
As it turned out, Brady did not make a run for Bolivia.
On a dramatic Thursday night in Foxborough, Mass., he did show for his Deflate-gate news conference, which attracted several wannabe Woodward and Bernstein types who shouted clever questions with hopes of getting the quarterback to crack under pressure.
Brady confessed to nothing, and it appears the scandal may pass. He is set to lead the New England Patriots into Super Bowl XLIX on Sunday at Glendale, Ariz., much to the relief of oddsmakers who are using Brady in numerous proposition wagers.
“I’m excited about the game and excited about the hype for the game, but it seems they lead more with that story than the game, which I think is a shame,” Sunset Station sports book director Chuck Esposito said. “If anything, maybe it’s a distraction for New England, but I don’t think it’s going to impact the outcome of the game.”
Everything about this story is absurd. While the national media’s seriously breathless coverage of Deflate-gate has been just embarrassing, the proliferation of Super Bowl prop bets is mostly for amusement.
In the early 1990s, bookmakers posted about 30 props on this game. Now, the props number in the 400 neighborhood and include LeBron James, Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Tiger Woods, among many others.
“If you had time, you could go on forever,” Westgate Las Vegas sports book manager Ed Salmons said. “You could always do more things. If you wanted to, there’s no end in sight.”
The Patriots are 1-point favorites over the Seattle Seahawks, and choosing sides leads to heated debates. (Esposito likes the Seattle side.) But the Super Bowl is the greatest spectacle in betting mostly because of the props.
It was 7 p.m. Thursday and shortly after Brady’s face-the-nation moment of truth — “I have no knowledge of anything,” he said — when the Westgate unveiled its approximately 350 props. Bettors were lined up at the windows, with the first rush of business coming from the sharpest gamblers, the guys who do it for profit and not the entertainment value. The wagering limits at the Westgate are in the $2,000 range.
One of the first props to get hit was Brady’s number of completions, which opened at 23 and is up to 24½.
“These guys are professionals, and they know what they’re doing,” said Salmons, who sat in front of his computer screen to monitor action and adjust lines when needed.
Salmons, sports book director Jay Kornegay and other Westgate oddsmakers spent more than a week on the tedious process of drawing up the props, cramming for long hours in the final days similar to college students studying for final exams.
“It’s fun to do it,” Salmons said, “but it does get tiring.”
The sharps spotted an apparent weak number, pounding the total number of kickoff returns by both teams under 6. Salmons moved it to 5½ (under minus-220).
The public tends to prefer basic props with big payoffs. Will there be overtime? (Yes is plus-550). Will there be a safety? (Yes is plus-500). None of the previous 48 Super Bowls went to overtime. It’s due to happen, right? There was a safety in the game each of the past three years, so bookmakers took a beating on that prop. No way it can happen four years in a row, right?
“I always say the best prop is the most simple prop,” Salmons said. “People like to just look at it and understand it. People want something simple.”
The opening coin toss, for example. Heads and tails are each minus-102, which means a $102 wager pays $100.
“One of the most popular props is heads-tails,” Salmons said. “We’ll write into the tens of thousands of dollars on each side of that prop. It’s crazy. Heads gets more play. We almost always need tails.”
The oddsmakers at Station Casinos got exceptionally creative with several props, including these two involving boxing and college football:
■ Parlay the Mayweather-Manny Pacquiao winner with the Patriots-Seahawks winner. A Mayweather-Patriots bet pays 13-10 odds. Of course, Mayweather might never agree to the fight, and wagers will be refunded if it does not happen by Dec. 31.
■ UNLV football regular-season wins in 2015 versus total made field goals by both teams in the Super Bowl. The line is pick’em. The prop on made field goals is 3½ (under minus-155), so it’s obvious expectations for the Rebels are not high.
“There are 15 pages of props, and the public can’t wait for the prop sheets to come out,” Esposito said. “We do the props, and there are so many traditional ones, but we always try to think outside the box.”
The Westgate’s props on Brady include his passing yards (265½), pass attempts (37½), rushing yards (1½), and whether he will throw a touchdown pass (minus-230) or interception (plus-195) first. There are many more.
Brady is getting 6-1 odds to score a touchdown. If the suspected liar and cheater had made a run for Bolivia, FBI agents would be in hot pursuit and that bet would be refunded.
Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247.