Cowboys equipped to wreck fairy tale
At this point, Brett Favre’s second return-from-retirement act qualifies as a big hit. Favre has made the Minnesota Vikings better, and his presence makes the NFL more interesting.
His indecisiveness gets annoying, no doubt, but it all was well worth it. We would rather see Favre in a purple jersey than Favre in Wrangler jeans playing backyard football with a bunch of buffoons on a Mississippi farm.
But the bottom line for Favre, and those who judge him, will be how the Vikings fare in the playoffs. The 40-year-old quarterback came back to get to the Super Bowl, not get knocked out early in the postseason.
So, it’s easy for me to circle the most intriguing game on this weekend’s divisional round schedule. The Dallas Cowboys are rolling into Minnesota, and they appear equipped to wreck Favre’s fairy tale.
Dallas, which has allowed 31 points during a four-game winning streak, has a devastating defense and a quarterback in Tony Romo who in many ways mirrors a young Favre.
I won’t go as far as to predict the end of the Vikings’ season, but the Cowboys look like a good bet as 3-point underdogs Sunday.
Break it down, and the teams seem dead even. Minnesota’s home-field advantage is significant. Dallas’ recent success is undeniable. Expect a thriller that goes down to the wire.
I’ll side with all four underdogs to cover this weekend, but the favorite most likely to win is the San Diego Chargers.
According to The Gold Sheet handicapper Bruce Marshall, this is a good time to play the ‘dogs. In the past six seasons, road underdogs in the divisional round are 16-8 against the spread (ATS). The trend is a stronger 10-2 ATS in the past three seasons.
Teams that earned a first-round bye in the playoffs don’t always benefit from the time off.
In each of the past four years, Marshall noted, a top seed in either the AFC or NFC has been eliminated in the divisional round. That fact should put the Vikings, Chargers, Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints on upset alert.
Micah Roberts of Vegas Insider said the Saints, 7-point favorites over the Arizona Cardinals, could be in the most trouble.
New Orleans covered two of its past nine games as a favorite, and its past two victories, over Atlanta and Washington in early December, each were by three points. The Saints’ 20-17 home loss to Tampa Bay on Dec. 27 was especially alarming.
The Cardinals, 6-2 straight up on the road this season, have covered all five of their playoff games the past two seasons.
It will be interesting to see how both quarterbacks perform. Kurt Warner passed for five touchdowns in Arizona’s 51-45 overtime victory over Green Bay last week. New Orleans’ Drew Brees led the league in touchdown passes with 34, but his numbers declined late, and he sat out the final game of the regular season.
“The Saints have not won a game in about a month. You don’t just turn on the switch and say, ‘We’re ready to play.’ There has been no continuity,” said Roberts, a former sports book director, most recently at Sunset Station. “You can’t let Tampa Bay roll into your house and beat you when you’re fighting for the No. 1 seed. That just can’t happen. I think the Cardinals are the play.”
The Colts, 61/2-point favorites over the Baltimore Ravens, have not tried to win a game since Dec. 17, when they beat Jacksonville, 35-31. Will a long layoff throw off the timing of Peyton Manning?
During its 14-0 start, Indianapolis won seven games by four points or fewer, including a 17-15 victory at Baltimore on Nov. 22.
The Chargers are 7-point favorites over the New York Jets, who boast the league’s No. 1 defense. San Diego is sharp, riding an 11-game winning streak, and quarterback Philip Rivers definitely has the edge over Jets rookie Mark Sanchez.
The Gold Sheet’s projections indicate close games and live underdogs: Saints, 31-30; Colts, 25-24; Chargers, 24-22; Cowboys, 28-20.
Favre’s beard is gray, but his on-field act is not growing old. He passed for 33 touchdowns, was picked off only seven times and put up a career-high 107.2 passer rating this season.
Perhaps more impressive, in eight regular-season home games — in which the Vikings went 8-0 — Favre threw 21 touchdown passes. And two interceptions.
Even if the Cowboys upset the Vikings, Favre’s comeback was not a failure.
Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907.