Early trends point to upset-filled March in NCAA Tournament
With assistance from some questionable officiating — a trend certain to continue throughout March — Steve Fisher danced around a determined underdog and San Diego State dodged the trap door that has pulled down so many No. 1 seeds.
Here is an alarming trend: In the first 11 conference tournaments to be played out, only one top seed won the title. And several other elite teams are biting the dust as well.
“It has been wild, and it pretty much emulates what we’re going to see next week,” said Chuck Esposito, Sunset Station sports book director. “There is still David and Goliath, but that gap has narrowed so much.”
Has the gap closed enough that Kansas or another giant could get stunned in the first round of next week’s NCAA Tournament?
“If there is ever a year when a No. 1 seed gets beat, maybe it happens,” Esposito said in an optimistic tone.
Bookmakers always hope for upsets, and this March, it’s not just wishful thinking. There certainly are going to be shockers, and there probably will be a No. 2 or a No. 3 seed go down. What we are witnessing now is a preview of the real madness.
Duke and Wisconsin, the teams in last year’s NCAA championship game, each took falls in Thursday upsets.
The Blue Devils blew a 16-point second-half lead and further unraveled in overtime, dropping an 84-79 decision to Notre Dame in the Atlantic Coast Conference tournament. Mike Krzyzewski is not winning another title, at least this year, and he knows it.
Krzyzewski hugged his shooting star, Grayson Allen, as he exited the game. Like him or not, Allen, who scored 27 points, deserves to be admired as a heck of a player. Still, it’s no secret most people hate him.
The Badgers, 6-point favorites, were pummeled 70-58 by a pedestrian Nebraska team in the Big Ten tournament. If Bo Ryan were still coaching, he would need a hug from his massage therapist.
Not to be outdone in the Big Ten, Illinois upended Iowa 68-66, and the oddsmakers were giving the Fighting Illini 10½ points. Most times, the oddsmakers get it right, yet sometimes, the lines are dead wrong.
How can anyone explain the Fresno State-UNLV line opening in the pick’em neighborhood? The so-called squares bet the Bulldogs to 3½-point favorites, and that was a sharp move. The gassed Rebels were run out of the Thomas & Mack Center in a 95-82 loss.
Prior to UNLV’s predictable demise, Eric Musselman coached UNR to a 64-62 upset of New Mexico, a 4-point favorite. Cameron Oliver, a phenomenal freshman forward, lifted the Wolf Pack with 26 points, 15 rebounds and four blocked shots.
This could be a future ESPN “Outside The Lines” investigative report: What magic trick did Musselman pull off to recruit Oliver to Reno?
The day started in the Mountain West with Fisher coaching the Aztecs, 8-point favorites, to a late comeback and another ugly win, 71-65 over Utah State. The teams combined for poor play, but the officiating was worse, and that’s no surprise.
In the Pac-12 tournament at the MGM Grand Garden, favorites won the first seven games, and bettors piled on the eighth favorite, California, in Thursday’s late game.
“It’s all California. We’re going to need Oregon State to save the night,” MGM Resorts sports book director Jay Rood said of a game that was on pace to end just before midnight. “Unfortunately, (Wednesday) was pretty ugly for the books with all of the favorites covering.”
Favorites finished 4-0 against the spread in the first round of Pac-12 action. The ’dogs finally barked by covering in Thursday’s first two games.
“If there are a lot of inconsistent, unpredictable results, that’s usually good for the house,” Rood said. “There’s a lot of parity this year, and that will mean a lot of pain for the players.”
There were some consistent, predictable results Thursday as Kansas, North Carolina, Villanova and Virginia rolled to double-digit wins that pained bookmakers.
There was a bad beat, too. Oklahoma failed to cover as a 4-point favorite in a 79-76 victory over Iowa State. Buddy Hield scored 39 points for the Sooners, but the senior guard also gave up a few costly points.
Hield turned the ball over while running out the clock, and Deonte Burton drained a 3 at the buzzer for the Cyclones. Something similar to that will happen next week, too.
“For me, the conference tournaments have become the craziness before the craziness,” Esposito said. “The games start so early and they go late. You can tell from the crowds and the electricity in the books, it’s really starting early.”
Selection Sunday is hours away, and Joe Lunardi is scratching his toupee while revising his bracket.
Soon after the brackets are set, they will get busted by upsets. As great as this week is, next week will be better. But, hopefully, not too painful for the bettors.
Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247