In Tom Brady’s absence, New England Patriots can win with backup plan
A backup quarterback lives in a different world than a starter. Jimmy Garoppolo is about to discover the differences as he temporarily takes control of a New England Patriots team in the spotlight as the Super Bowl favorite.
Many people who ignored him before will now care about his every move and learn how to spell his last name. That group includes media, fantasy football owners and gamblers. He can make countless new friends, if he wins.
With NFL training camps set to open next week, Garoppolo is suddenly among the main characters. He will be taking first-team reps while Tom Brady waits out his four-game suspension in the clumsy Deflategate case that mercifully is coming to an end.
The questions about Garoppolo are just beginning. Will he salvage the first month of the Patriots’ season or wreck it for the long haul? Is he capable of running the offense similar to Brady or will he prove to be a poor imitation? Very few Elvis impersonators running around Vegas resemble the real thing.
“You hear a lot of good things about Garoppolo,” Sunset Station sports book director Chuck Esposito said. “If he’s ready to take the next step, the Patriots could easily come out of this 3-1.”
We know little about Garoppolo. We know he broke Tony Romo’s passing records at Eastern Illinois before New England made him a second-round pick in 2014. We know he has one touchdown pass as a pro, a throw to tight end Rob Gronkowski during a blowout loss at Kansas City in his rookie season.
We also know he has plenty of time to prepare for his first career start, and with a great cast around him, most of us are guessing he can handle this. Before we knew Brady would be forced to sit four games, William Hill oddsmakers posted the Patriots as minus-220 favorites to win the AFC East. The line remains the same today.
“The Patriots will be just fine,” William Hill sports book director Nick Bogdanovich said. “Even if they come back 2-2 or 1-3, Brady will find a way to get them to the playoffs.”
Even with Brady missing 25 percent of the regular season, New England is favored to win the Super Bowl at 6-1 odds. That’s because we know Bill Belichick is a coach who can handle the situation.
“The Patriots are not strangers to adversity. In fact, they seem to thrive on it,” said Bernie Fratto, a former radio host for the Detroit Lions who’s now with ESPN Radio in Las Vegas. “In 2001, 2004 and 2014, New England faced real distractions, and what did all three seasons have in common? The Patriots advanced to the Super Bowl each time. Belichick and company are not only equipped to deal with setbacks and uncertainty, there is no doubt in mind they are in a perpetual state of preparedness for just such circumstances.”
As Fratto (BernieFratto.com) pointed out, the Patriots were ahead of the curve. Brady had the foresight to restructure his contract to provide Deflategate protection. In March, Brady reconfigured his 2016 salary from $10 million to $1 million, meaning he will lose only $250,000 by sitting out four games.
The Patriots opened as 1-point underdogs at Arizona in Week 1. In April, after NFL commissioner Roger Goodell’s suspension of Brady was reinstated in court, the line was adjusted to 4½. Even if it closes at 6 by kickoff on Sept. 11, the adjustment to Garoppolo is less than a full touchdown.
“When a starter was out last season, whether it was Ben Roethlisberger or Tony Romo, the adjustment seemed to be seven points or more in some cases, and it hasn’t been that high yet with New England,” Esposito said.
It would be a surprise if the Cardinals, 13-3 at home the past two seasons, do not beat Garoppolo and the Patriots in the opener.
“Even with Brady, it would not have been an easy game in Arizona,” Esposito said. “But it’s funny how it worked out that way. For whatever reason, the schedule maker was not hard on the Patriots.”
In Week 2, New England is a 6-point home favorite over Miami. The Patriots are 3-point favorites in each of their next two home games against Houston and Buffalo. In essence, the schedule breaks favorably for the Patriots in Brady’s absence.
“The first four games will not only give the Patriots an opportunity to evaluate Garoppolo when actual bullets are flying, but three of those games are at home,” Fratto said. “I expect New England to open by going 3-1, but certainly no worse than 2-2.
“In the end, to be sure, this is not the outcome the Patriots wanted. But if past is prologue, somehow Belichick and Brady will find a way to use this as positive fuel toward another legitimate Super Bowl run.”
New England’s regular-season win total is 10½ (Over minus-150), and a reasonable expectation is for the Patriots to go 2-2 with Garoppolo and 9-3 with Brady.
Brady almost certainly played a role in the deflation of footballs, yet it was absurd for Goodell to hunt down the league’s model quarterback as if he were “El Chapo” on the run in the Mexico.
“I’m not a Brady fan or a Patriots fan, but I definitely don’t think the penalty fits the crime,” Bogdanovich said. “Four games is way too harsh. I figured one game would be fine. I’m glad it’s behind us.”
Goodell won the grudge match in court. The Patriots still will win on the field.
Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow on Twitter: @mattyoumans247