Newton pick amounts to gamble

A few years from now the critics, myself included, might be proven wrong, but this was a bad year to own the top pick, and taking Newton was a foolish risk.

The former Auburn quarterback was unstoppable in college, a 6-foot-5-inch combination of power, speed and the will to make winning plays. But that was college, where not all players are good enough to get paid.

Steve Fezzik, a professional gambler who has won multiple NFL handicapping contests, does not have the scouting background or the helmet hair of Mel Kiper Jr. What Fezzik does have is a sharp opinion on most topics, and he called the Panthers’ pick an "off-the-charts bad move" for several reasons.

"People say, what’s the downside? I say, what’s the upside? You can draft a low-character knucklehead who can help you win," Fezzik said, "but it can’t be a quarterback who has to study the game."

Newton is not a typical pro-style passer. He ran a simple offense that didn’t require him to read complex defensive schemes. He has little experience calling the right audible or taking a snap from center.

He does not have pinpoint passing accuracy, he won’t be bigger and faster than the Pittsburgh Steelers linebackers breathing down his neck, and if he has character flaws they will get exposed.

Newton appears to be the typical one-trick pony. He can turn a mad scramble out of the pocket into the occasional big play. Maybe proper coaching can point him in the right direction, but it could be akin to teaching a pig to dance — it’s a waste of time and it irritates the pig.

"You look at all this," Fezzik said, "and you think, how can this player merit qualifying as the first pick in the draft?"

Newton resembles Vince Young more than Michael Vick. If he’s a bust, Newton will be compared to JaMarcus Russell and Ryan Leaf, two dubious characters and one (Leaf) with a legitimate arm.

If Newton had been drafted in the second round, his odds of success would be better, Fezzik said. But enormous expectations come with countless millions of dollars, and that sort of money can decrease a player’s desire. Add to that Newton is going to a 2-14 team.

"He’s a tremendous talent. If he wants to succeed, he could be a great quarterback," Fezzik said. "But does he have the work ethic and the passion? Hand me $50 million and I might be a crappy quarterback."

After two months of legal entanglements over a labor dispute, the NFL returned Thursday with something positive to pitch. Players and coaches were doing the talking, not attorneys, and commissioner Roger Goodell was smiling while he was booed as the bad guy.

The Las Vegas Hilton on Saturday opened lines for Week 1 of the regular season, and some hope is surfacing that the lockout might not wipe out part of the schedule.

"You’re a little concerned about it, but there’s really no panic with this right now. We’re in April," Hilton sports book director Jay Kornegay said. "I’m still pretty optimistic they will get it done, but I think it will get done real late and they will wait until the last minute."

The sports books need the business the NFL provides. Imagine the lack of action on Sunday mornings and Monday nights without it. What’s a fall Sunday without a bad beat to whine about?

There are betting angles to be found in the lockout, too. A key number in totals is 41. Seeing that teams might miss practice time and preseason games, and knowing that would hinder the offenses, Fezzik bet under all the totals of 41½ posted at the Hilton, which adjusted all those numbers to 41.

"The draft is irrelevant," Fezzik said. "It won’t move the line half a point."

But it is a reason to talk football for a few days. Atlanta traded five picks, including two first-rounders, to Cleveland and snagged Alabama receiver Julio Jones. "What a terrible trade," Fezzik said.

I like A.J. Green, the Georgia receiver who went to the Cincinnati Bengals, and J.J. Watt, the Wisconsin defensive end who went to the Houston Texans. I’m not sure why the Minnesota Vikings drafted Florida State quarterback Christian Ponder so high at No. 12.

We’ll know more about Newton in two or three years. The draft and hindsight go together like drinking and smoking or football and betting. Many of the first-round picks will fade into flops, but almost all seemed like a good idea at the time.

Newton looks a lot like a high-risk pick without any obvious high reward.

Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts the "Las Vegas Sportsline" weeknights at midnight on KDWN-AM (720) and thelasvegassportsline.com.