Racers imperfect, but they’re still legit

About a week before Lin-sanity turned the NBA upside down, Isaiah Canaan had made Murray State the hottest story in college hoops. But just as no second-half lead is safe anymore, hot stories come and go.

Canaan and the Racers went from 23-0 to forgotten after one loss. It seems unfair, but so does Duke overcoming a 20-point second-half deficit and Kim Kardashian's popularity.

March is the most dramatic month of the college basketball season, full of tales as outrageous as a Hunter S. Thompson book. Murray State still could be a great story next month, even if it won't come as a midmajor surprise.

The 16th-ranked Racers, according to some of the so-called bracketologists, are said to be another loss from the NCAA Tournament bubble. So the third Saturday in February and an ESPN BracketBusters game against Saint Mary's shapes up as a dramatic day for the hottest team in Kentucky that's not coached by John Calipari.

"It's a game that means more to Murray State," said Ken White, an analyst for DonBest.com and a former Las Vegas Sports Consultants oddsmaker. "If the Racers get beat, then there will be questions about how good they are and the schedule they play."

Again, that's unfair. Murray State, as a 10-point underdog, won at Memphis on Dec. 11, and it's tougher to win at Memphis than at Texas Christian or Wyoming.

There is no question the Racers (25-1) became overrated when they reached the Top 10, but they are legitimate in terms of being a team capable of winning a couple of NCAA Tournament games.

Canaan, a 6-foot junior point guard, is almost as quick as Allen Iverson and surely smarter with his money. Canaan averages 19.2 points and shoots 47 percent from 3-point range, and White expects him to shoot down Saint Mary's.

The Gaels have had a bad week, losing by 14 at Gonzaga before getting pounded 75-60 on their home floor by Loyola Marymount on Wednesday.

The matchup between Canaan and Saint Mary's guard Matthew Dellavedova will be exciting, and a certain bald, one-eyed broadcaster will be there to call it for ESPN.

"I like Murray State a lot in this game, and really not on power rating and more on a gut feel of who needs the game more," White said. "I think they probably win the game easily. Saint Mary's has to be down on confidence and second-guessing themselves.

"The more Murray kept winning, the higher the spread kept getting, even though they were not covering. The pressure was on when they were undefeated. But they got the monkey off their back, and now the pressure is off."

It's always challenging to try to predict the opening lines for Saturday's college basketball rotation. The numbers open around 2 p.m. today, but White, who set the odds for several years, picked up his pencil and drew early lines on a few key games. White expects Murray State to open as a 1½- to 2-point home favorite.

u25B6 UNLV at New Mexico -- The Rebels blew an 18-point second-half lead at TCU on Tuesday and fell to 3-8 against the spread on the road, including 0-5 in the Mountain West Conference.

The Lobos, led by Drew Gordon's 17 points and 17 rebounds, just picked up a 10-point win at San Diego State. UNLV is eager to bounce back at The Pit, where it has won the past two years.

This is an intriguing line to forecast. While some say New Mexico should be favored by 3 to 4, White said 6 to 6½.

"When the Rebels beat North Carolina in November, that pushed them into another stratosphere," White said. "But they have been very weak on the road. I think New Mexico is a slightly better team, and UNLV's road record helps push that number higher."

u25B6 San Diego State at Air Force -- After upending Wyoming as a 12-point underdog Wednesday, the Falcons catch the Aztecs off consecutive losses to the Lobos and Rebels. On its home court, Air Force lost to New Mexico by 39 after taking UNLV to overtime.

"Air Force is going to slow it down and it's going to be a grind-out game," White said. "Could we see an upset?"

Don't expect an upset, but White foresees a competitive game and makes San Diego State a 7-point favorite.

u25B6 White's lines on other key Saturday games: Ohio State (-7½) at Michigan, Florida (-5) at Arkansas, Notre Dame at Villanova (-1), Arizona at Washington (-4½), Long Beach State at Creighton (-6), Kansas State at Baylor (-7), and UNR at Iona (-5). Is it tougher to project the lines or pick the winners?

■ BOTTOM LINES -- The NCAA Tournament office pool brackets won't be filled out for a few weeks, but Leroy's sports books are already accepting entries for a "Three 'n Out" contest with an entry fee of $25. It's a small price to pay for a lot of action.

Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts the "Las Vegas Sportsline" weeknights at midnight on KDWN-AM (720) and thelasvegassportsline.com.