Seahawks will be popular with bookmakers
On the Monday after the Super Bowl, there will be numerous hot topics, some of which will matter. Marshawn Lynch will matter if the Seattle Seahawks win or lose, and not because the running back might have grabbed his crotch.
Lynch made that obscene gesture after scoring a go-ahead touchdown in the Seahawks’ comeback victory over Green Bay for the NFC championship. The NFL fined Lynch $20,000, and the league probably will fine him again next week when he refuses to speak to the media.
Of course, the media will find other meaningless topics. Eventually, the fascination over the air pressure of the New England Patriots’ balls will die down, and the topic will turn to football.
If the Seahawks win Super Bowl XLIX on Feb. 1 at Glendale, Ariz., it most likely will be due to Lynch’s ability to run with a properly inflated ball, thus deflating the Patriots’ defense.
“I think Lynch is going to be able to run,” said Westgate Las Vegas sports book director Jay Kornegay, who is building his argument for Seattle on the premise that elite NFC teams are “so much more physical” than finesse AFC teams.
“I’m not saying you’re going to see a lopsided score, but I’m pretty comfortable saying the Seahawks are going to win by four to 10 points.”
There are cases to be made for both sides. The focus for now will stay on the Seahawks, the side the bookmakers expect to prefer.
“I suggest that at game time we’re going to need the Seahawks to win the game,” South Point oddsmaker Jimmy Vaccaro said.
Seattle opened as a 2½-point favorite Sunday night, and the public moved fast to force a change of favorites. The line is now New England minus-1. The total is projected to rise from 48½ to 49½ by kickoff.
A year ago, the public disrespected the Seahawks and jumped on Peyton Manning’s shoulders. Denver opened as an underdog and closed as a 2½-point favorite. The Broncos got blasted 43-8 — and the public, in general, got pounded — in arguably the worst of the 48 Super Bowls.
As of now, according to Kornegay, tickets on New England are being written at around a 5-to-2 ratio. But approximately 85 percent of the wagering on the side will show up in the final two days.
“It’s still looking like the public is really going to support the Patriots, but not like we saw with the Broncos last year,” Kornegay said. “It’s not going to be as lopsided as last year, and I’m pretty confident in that. I can say we’re going to need the Seahawks to some degree.”
Las Vegas handicapper Bryan Leonard has picked his side, and he’s opposite of public opinion.
“As sports bettors, people tend to remember what they saw last. In this case, it was a Seattle team that trailed for almost the entire game against Green Bay, and a New England team that dominated Indianapolis,” said Leonard (Footballwinners.com). “Going into last weekend, the futures had the NFC favored by 2½ to 3 over the AFC. With Seattle and New England expected to win, it made sense.
“But most of the early money came in on the Patriots, and according to some bookmakers in town, it wasn’t sharp money. Keep in mind that it doesn’t take much money to move a number early in the week, especially when not on a key number. So when you hear the media talk about the huge influx of cash on the Patriots, you can come to your own better-informed conclusions.”
The media, similar to the government, sometimes misleads the public. Although I’m leaning to the Patriots in the game, when it comes to NFL betting, the popular public side is one I typically want to avoid.
“Currently, 76 percent of the bets on the game have come in on the Patriots, yet the overall money bet is much closer to even,” Leonard said. “That means the bigger bets are on the Seahawks, while the smaller bets are favoring the Patriots.”
In Leonard’s words, the Patriots are “public darlings” after taking advantage of a favorable matchup against Andrew Luck and the Colts. Russell Wilson threw four interceptions as the Seahawks struggled in a miraculous victory over a hobbled Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.
“No one out there would rank the Colts on the same level as New England, Green Bay or Seattle,” Leonard said. “Seattle is the better team that played the tougher schedule. The situation screams Seahawks after the way they played last week. The situation is very similar to a year ago.”
Leonard had more to say — teams entering the Super Bowl with the top-ranked scoring defense are 9-1, for example — but that’s the majority of his argument for the defending champions.
Kornegay’s case is more about Lynch, who carried the ball 25 times for 157 yards against the Packers and is capable of putting the squeeze on the Patriots.
A case can be made for the other side, and I’ll look at it next week. It will have nothing to do with deflated footballs or Lynch grabbing his crotch.
Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247.