Yankees can’t afford stinker by Sabathia

The intrigue of postseason baseball is mostly about phenomenal starting pitchers and clutch hits in the late innings. Who can deliver under the most pressure?

A lot is riding on Sabathia in today’s opener of the American League Championship Series, because if he flops, the Yankees probably fail to return to the World Series.

“The first game is almost a must-win for the Yankees,” said Dave Cokin, a Las Vegas handicapper and ESPN Radio host. “If the Yankees don’t win Game 1, they could be in real trouble.”

Sabathia and the Yankees are minus-140 favorites over the Texas Rangers and left-hander C.J. Wilson. The best-of-7 series price also favors the Yankees at minus-170.

It takes either kamikaze courage or stupidity to bet against the Yankees in a playoff series. They appeared to be on shaky legs going into the first round, but they made mincemeat of the Minnesota Twins, and Sabathia was mediocre in his only start.

The line value is at plus-150 with the Rangers, who have home-field advantage and their own ace lefty, Cliff Lee, set to take the mound in Games 3 and 7. Cokin said he leans to Texas but is passing on the series bet.

“This series looks like it’s going to be tough,” Cokin said. “I think I’m looking for spots to take the Rangers.”

Joe D’Amico, a handicapper for Aasiwins.com, recommends backing Sabathia today, pointing to his 8-3 career record against the Rangers and the ability of the Yankees’ lineup to provide run support.

Yankees manager Joe Girardi changed his rotation plans, moving up right-hander Phil Hughes to Game 2 and dropping veteran left-hander Andy Pettitte to Game 3 in New York. Pettitte is 2-4 with an 8.22 ERA in starts at Arlington.

“Hughes has been tremendous, and he can shut them down,” Cokin said. “I think it’s a very good move by Girardi. Pettitte sets up better against this team at home. The Rangers do have some nasty right-handed hitters, and Pettitte could have trouble with that lineup.”

The Rangers, 0-2 at home in the postseason, could be in better position to win on the road. Lee, who had 21 strikeouts and no walks in two wins over Tampa Bay in the division series, will oppose Pettitte in Game 3. Lee beat the Yankees twice in last year’s World Series.

“As good as Lee is, can they make him an underdog? You’ve got to think any game Lee is in right now, he’s probably going to win,” Cokin said.

If Girardi sticks to his word, he might regret starting loose cannon A.J. Burnett in Game 4. Sabathia is the ace, and Burnett, 1-7 since Aug. 1, is the joker who needs to be thrown out of the shuffle.

“Burnett is a disaster. If I’m Girardi, I’m not giving the ball to Burnett,” Cokin said. “You could be down 5-0 out of the gate. I would not be pitching him. I’m not even sure I would have him on the roster.”

The best strategy is probably to bet the AL series on a game-by-game basis with an eye on Texas in Games 3 and 4 in New York.

Win or lose, the Yankees are the favorites to land Lee, by far the best pitcher on the offseason free-agent market.

In the National League, the Philadelphia Phillies are minus-250 series favorites over the San Francisco Giants. The price is high, but the Phillies are worth buying.

The Game 1 matchup Saturday is a monster. Phillies right-hander Roy Halladay, off a no-hitter against Cincinnati, is a minus-170 favorite over Tim Lincecum, who looks and pitches like a freak.

“The Giants have got a shot, but they will have to pitch shutouts to do it. The Giants just can’t hit,” Cokin said. “The Phillies are going to win the series. I’m not looking for the upset. And I think Philly is going to win the whole thing.”

■ CLOSING NUMBERS — It’s time again to flip coins on college football games. Last week’s results (3-3-1) put my season record at 19-20-2. A supportive reader, Becky, e-mailed this week with a play and called it a “gift” — Florida International minus-5 over North Texas.

Here are 10 plays for Saturday (home team in CAPS):

Illinois (+7) over MICHIGAN STATE; Minnesota (+5½) over PURDUE; COLORADO STATE (-3) over Unlv; Western Michigan (+24) over NOTRE DAME; SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA (-2) over California; Iowa (-3) over MICHIGAN; Brigham Young (+29) over TEXAS CHRISTIAN; Ohio State (-4) over WISCONSIN; SAN DIEGO STATE (+1) over Air Force; HAWAII (+7) over Unr.

Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts the “Las Vegas Sportsline” weeknights at midnight on KDWN-AM (720) and kdwn.com.