Breeders’ Cup picks for Saturday’s 9 races, including $7M Classic

Day 2 will be highlighted by one of the more intriguing editions yet of the marquee $7 million Breeders’ Cup Classic, which drew a full field of 14 runners from three continents.

But the other races are hardly leftovers. With the a record number of horses from overseas joining the competition, surprising results can be expected. That means hefty payoffs for those able to decipher equine puzzles that often defy standard handicapping approaches.

The Breeders’ Cup action starts with the fourth race on the 12-race Del Mar card, with an estimated post time of noon. Here are the races in order, along with my selections and suggested betting strategies:

$1 million Filly & Mare Sprint

The pace scenario in this 7-furlong main track test for fillies and mares 3-year-olds and older is murky, as there are no confirmed front-runners among the 10 entrants.

One Magic Philly (10-1) and Society (3-1) seem most likely to take the initiative early, though that is typically not a winning strategy in these elongated sprints.

If they do, 5-2 morning-line favorite Ways and Means should get a perfect trip from her outer post, allowing her to draft in right behind the leaders and get first jump on the closers by the time the field reaches the stretch. I’ll bet her to win if her price stays that high and box her in exactas with Vahva (4-1), Zeitlos (6-1) and Scylla (10-1).

$1 million Turf Sprint

While the European horses have historically dominated the longer Breeders’ Cup turf races, North American horse have more than held their own in the grass sprints.

Cogburn, the speedy U.S.-based 7-5 morning-line favorite, may be able to keep that trend alive, though the European contingent appears more dangerous than usual this year.

I’m going to try to get the best of both continents by betting the Charlie Appleby-trained Star of Mystery (10-1) to win. The 3-year-old filly raced in Europe and the Middle East before coming to the U.S. and racing three times this summer and fall in an apparent attempt to get her acquainted with American-style racing.

I’ll also box her in exactas with Cogburn and last year’s Juvenile Turf Sprint champion, Big Evs (12-1).

$2 million Distaff

Trainer Ken McPeek famously compared his 3-year-old filly Thorpedo Anna to a grizzly bear, an apt comparison given that the 4-5 morning-line favorite figures to devour her seven Distaff rivals in this 1⅛-mile dirt race.

The Chad Brown-trained Raging Sea (7-2) appears to offer the main competition to the favorite, but seems likely to have to settle for second.

No bet for me on this race, though Thorpedo Anna looks like a good single for horseplayers who like horizontal wagers like Pick 3s and Pick 4s.

$5 million Turf

Rebel’s Romance, a nine-time winner at this demanding 1½-mile distance, won this race in 2022 at Keeneland. The 5-2 morning-line favorite is back for another try and has been in top form this year against top competition for Appleby while traveling the world.

The 6-year-old Godolphin gelding looks tough in here, but I will try to beat him with the ambitiously placed Aidan O’Brien-trained Wingspan (15-1), who gets a 7-pound weight break from her older male counterparts and figures to be on the engine.

I’ll bet her to win and play her in a saver exacta box with Rebel’s Romance.

$7 million Classic

This Classic is the most internationally intriguing to date, with a top European runner and three Japanese entrants trying to best the North Americans at their own game: 1¼ miles on the dirt.

The 5-2 morning-line favorite is City of Troy, the aforementioned European colt who has won six of his seven starts for O’Brien in Europe. But those races were all on the lawn, and the 3-year-old has never competed on the dirt.

Given there is a dearth of speed in the race, I’m going to bet Arthur’s Ride (15-1), the only confirmed front-runner in the 14-horse field, to win. I’ll also box him in exactas with Japanese entrant Forever Young (6-1) and second choice Fierceness (3-1).

$2 million Filly & Mare Turf

War Like Goddess, the 5-2 morning-line favorite in this 1⅜-mile race on the grass for fillies and mares, probably stands the best chance of defeating the Europeans in the longer grass races. Trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott, she’s been a model of consistency this year, with four in-the-money finishes in four starts.

At the relatively ripe old age of 7, though, she’s hardly invincible, and she faces several sharp European runners. The best of these appears to be Cinderella’s Dream (4-1), another Appleby trainee who already has won twice in the U.S.

She’s my win bet at that price or higher, and I’ll box her in exactas with O’Brien’s Content (6-1) and the consistent Canadian Moira (8-1).

$2 million Sprint

This race is loaded with so called need-the-lead horses, suggesting a fierce battle with ensue that sets the table for a closer.

Nakatomi (6-1) certainly fits the bill, but he’s getting quite a bit of buzz this week and likely will go off at a lower price than that.

The Japanese runner Don Frankie (15-1), runner-up in the Dubai Golden Shaheen (G1) in March, should offer a much better price and will be carrying my win bet. I’ll also box him in exactas with Federal Judge, the 3-1 morning-line favorite, and Nakatomi.

$2 million Mile

Another Appleby-trained horse, Notable Speech, is the 7-2 morning-line favorite in this grass race.

He regressed in his last race in France, when he encountered soft going, but has demonstrated top form on firmer sod and makes sense in this spot.

There are several other accomplished European and Japanese runners entered who could possibly turn the tables, as well as a U.S.-based runner, Carl Spackler (6-1), so I’ll simply play Notable Speech to win at his morning-line odds or higher.

$1 million Dirt Mile

Domestic Product, the 7-2 morning-line favorite for trainer Brown, is in sharp form and deserves top billing in this contentious closer, but I’ll try to beat him with the speedy Saudi Crown (5-1), who drew the rail and figures to take the field a long way if he breaks cleanly.

I’ll back him to win and box him in exactas and trifectas with Domestic Product and the Bob Baffert-trained Muth (9-2).

Mike Brunker is a retired Review-Journal editor who now spends a good amount of time lounging poolside with the Daily Racing Form.