It’s not too early to start looking for your Kentucky Derby horse
One thing I love about horseplayers is that they are always looking ahead. If not to the next race, then the next day’s card. And if not to the next day’s card, then to some future race where the horse they spotted as a first-time starter comes roaring down the stretch to serve up a life-changing score.
That’s why fans love the Kentucky Derby, and it explains why most horseplayers I know are already trying to draw a bead on their Derby horse, nearly six months before the race is run.
Race books know how we think, and several already have Derby futures bets posted. And Churchill Downs is offering its first round of future wagering starting next Thursday, along with Kentucky Oaks futures betting and a new wager that allows punters to wager on which sire will produce the 2018 Derby winner.
You’ll also see plenty of lists of Top 10 Derby prospects in the coming weeks and months, maybe even one or two from me. I’m not immune to Derby fever. It’s fun to see the early buzz horses and watch how the early preps shift the odds. If you go to reviewjournal.com and hunt down the online version of this column, I’ll help whet your appetite by sharing William Hill’s Derby Futures odds as of Sunday.
2018 Kentucky Derby Futures by Las Vegas Review-Journal on Scribd
But while it’s good to begin paying attention to the Derby picture at this point, it’s usually pure folly to make a future wager on the race.
I can think of one exception:
If you’re within sprinting distance of a race book that offers Derby future wagering – many don’t at this point — and you spot a maiden special weight or allowance winner that looks like the next coming of Secretariat, it might make sense to put a few bucks on him before others can drive the price down.
Otherwise, betting on a horse to win the Derby right now is akin to trying to predict the price of a gallon of gas in 2050. The odds that a horse will even make the starting gate on May 5 are long, which explains why the “other” bet is always the pick in the early Churchill Downs futures pools.
So here’s my advice: Begin studying the various contenders, beginning with the two obvious leaders of the 2-year-old division at this point: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Good Magic and Bolt d’Oro, the unquestioned division leader before that. Then watch as many prep races as you can and play when it makes sense, i.e. when you like a horse at generous odds. Those races are often won by improving horses that weren’t precocious as 2-year-olds and pay well when they come into their own.
We’ll also include some of those preps as #RJhorseracing feature races, which means it’s a great time to get involved in our experiment in interactive handicapping. Simply email me at the address below or follow me on Twitter and you’ll receive weekly breakdowns showing how our handicapping corps — made up of horseplayers like you — assess each race. It’s useful information to compare against the parimutuel odds as you search for horses that offer value.
#RJhorseracing featured races
Speaking of our #RJhorseracing handicappers, this week they tore into a pair of meat-and-potatoes races, the 8th and 9th races on Saturday’s card at Gulfstream Park West, formerly Calder Race Course.
In the 8th, an optional $25,000 claiming race for 3-year-olds and up at 1 1/16th miles on the turf, our ‘cappers are siding with 7-2 morning favorite Dance Strike, a lightly raced Tapit colt who just missed in his last try at this level. They see Major Key (8-1) and Little Baltar (4-1) filling out the top placings.
“3-year-old Tapit colt for M. Casse/J. Oxley; lightly raced and purchased for $410,000 as a yearling,” handicapper Mas Yoshinaga said of Dance Strike.
I’ll try to beat the fave with 15-1 shot Little No Way, whose last-place effort in his last race over a yielding track at Kentucky Downs looks like a toss-out.
In the 9th, a 6-furlong dash on the main track for 3-year-olds and up that are in for a $6,250 tag, the corps is going out on a limb with Social Roy, fourth choice on the morning line at 6-1 who was claimed in his last race. Starship Apollo, 9-5 on the line, and More Applause (4-1) round out the balloting.
I’ll try to beat the chalk again with Stableford (5-1), who has used the turf-to-dirt move before to good effect.
Contact Mike Brunker mbrunker@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-4656. Follow @mike_brunker on Twitter.