Kentucky Derby just 2 months off, so let’s talk Breeders’ Cup
With about two months remaining until the Kentucky Derby, it’s naturally time to begin discussing … the Breeders’ Cup?
That would be crazy talk in any year but 2020, since it would be impossible to get even a vague picture in March of what a race — much less two days of races — in November would look like.
But since the Breeders’ Cup will follow hard on the heels of the Derby and the Preakness Stakes this year, it actually makes sense to start sorting the various older divisions now, before we get too deeply engrossed in the juvenile and 3-year-old races of summer.
We received several major clues last weekend as to who some of those early leaders might be and should get at least one more on Saturday in the $500,000 Metropolitan Handicap, better known as the Met Mile, at Belmont Park.
The prestigious Grade 1 race, which caps a beautiful card for Belmont’s closing weekend featuring five graded stakes, drew a field of eight. The race is a “win and you’re in” prep for the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, though it can also have implications in the Sprint and Classic as well if connections decide one of those races is better suited to their horse.
The field is led by the well-traveled Bob Baffert-trained McKinzie, winner of the 7-furlong Triple Bend Stakes at Santa Anita last out, and Shug McGaughey’s Code of Honor, who owns three graded stakes victories over the Belmont track, including the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes in September.
Those two figure to vie for favoritism, but others who will try to stamp their ticket for the two-day championship series on Nov. 6-7 at Keeneland include Vekoma, who won the Grade 1 Carter Handicap at Belmont in his last start, Warrior’s Charge, runner-up to top older horse By My Standards in the Oaklawn Handicap (Grade 2) last out and Mr Freeze, no worse than third in his last seven starts, all but one them a graded stakes.
The race will be broadcast by NBC, from 2-3 p.m. PT, and shown live on TVG on cable.
As for the clues delivered last weekend, they came on Saturday in the Stephen Foster Stakes (Grade 2) and the Fleur de Lis Stakes (Grade 2), both contested at 1⅛ miles at Churchill Downs.
In the former, Tom’s d’Etat rolled to a convincing 4¼-length victory over By My Standards to stake his claim to the top spot in the older dirt division that leads to the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
It wasn’t just the ease of the victory, but the professionalism with which the 7-year-old son of Smart Strike went about his businesses. He was happy to rate early just behind the early pacesetter and move to the front effortlessly when jockey Miguel Mena gave him his cue. The Al Stall Jr. trainee appeared to have plenty left in the tank and looks to me to be a standout in the division at this point.
In the Fleur de Lis, Midnight Bisou swept to the lead at the top of the stretch and then drew off to an 8¼-length victory over six outmatched rivals. In rebounding from a second-place finish to Maximum Security in the $20 million Saudi Cup, the 5-year-old daughter of Midnight Lute ran her lifetime record to 13 wins from 21 starts, a period in which she has never finished off the board.
At this juncture, she also looks like the class of the Distaff division.
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Ellis Starr's Metropolitan Handicap analysis
Mr Freeze and Vekoma are my two top contenders to win this year's Runhappy Metropolitan Handicap, but of the pair I will give Mr Freeze preference. The reason is he's a true dirt miler. Last September, Mr Freeze won the Ack Ack Stakes for a then career-best 115 Equibase Speed Figure and he hasn't really run a bad race since then. Stretching out to two-turns and a 1 1/8th mile for the Fayette Stakes in October and the Clark Stakes in November, Mr Freeze finished respectably to the top horse in the handicap division in North America, Tom's d'Etat, winner of the Stephen Foster Stakes last weekend. After another big effort when second in the Pegasus World Cup Invitational in January, Mr Freeze cut back to a one turn mile and won the Gulfstream Park Mile in impressive fashion, duplicating the 115 figure earned in the Ack Ack. Once again Mr Freeze stretched out to 9 furlongs for the Oaklawn Handicap when last seen in May, finishing third of 13. Incidentally, the winner of that race (By My Standards) came back to run second to Tom's d'Etat in the Foster. For this race, Mr Freeze is once again cutting back from 1 1/8th mile to a mile and if his last two efforts at a mile are any indication, he's going to be very tough to beat. On another positive note, jockey Manny Franco rode Mr Freeze just once previously, when victorious in the Gulfstream Park Mile.
Vekoma, although running just twice in 2018, was a top 2-year-old as he won the Nashua Stakes in November in only the second start of his career. Similarly, he won the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes in his second start as a 3-year-old, before disappointing badly when 13th in the Kentucky Derby. Given nearly 11 months to mature after that, Vekoma made a very sharp debut as a 4-year-old in March with a stirring victory in the Sir Shackleton Stakes with a career-best 109 figure. Improving sensationally in his second start of the year, Vekoma put to shame a good field in the Carter Handicap last month at Belmont when drawing off to a 7 1/4-length win. The 116 figure earned in that race is the second best last race figure in the field, just one point shy of the 117 McKinzie earned last month at the same 7-furlong trip. However, what Vekoma has going for him which McKinzie does not is being a 4-year-old, Vekoma is still physically maturing and can improve. A perfect four-for-four in one-turn races in his career and with a perfect two-for-two record at Belmont, Vekoma is another strong contender to win this year's Metropolitan Handicap.
Code of Honor, like Vekoma, was a top 3-year-old last year, winning the Fountain of Youth Stakes in March. After third place finishes in the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby, placed second in the latter race after the disqualification of Maximum Security, Code of Honor proved himself once again when winning the Dwyer Stakes at this one-turn mile trip at Belmont last July. Stretching out to 1 1/4 mile, Code of Honor won the Travers Stakes before a career-best effort and 114 figure when coming up a nose short in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, then was moved up to first after bumped by the original winner. The long campaign apparently took its toll as he finished seventh in the Breeders' Cup Classic. However, after seven months off, Code of Honor came back strongly to win the Westchester Stakes last month over the track with a 113 figure effort that bears improvement in his second start off that long layoff.
Endorsed led into the stretch in the Westchester but had no answer for Code of Honor in the late stages. The 112 figure was a career-best and he certainly could be a factor once more. McKinzie earned a 117 figure winning the Triple Bend Stakes last month in California and earned back-to-back 121 figures in two-turn races, winning the Whitney Stakes last summer at Saratoga then second in the Awesome Again Stakes. He finished second in the Breeders' Cup Classic to end his 2019 campaign. McKinzie, along with Hog Creek Hustle has mostly a deep closing style when he runs into a very hot pace as evidenced by his eighth to second place effort in last year's Metropolitan Handicap. Hog Creek Hustle earned a career best 106 figure when coming up a nose short in the H. Allen Jerkens Stakes last summer but has not come close to running that kind of race since. With only one "early" pace type in this race, Warrior's Charge (with a career-best 104 figure), I think the late charges of both McKinzie and Hog Creek Hustle may be a bit muted. Network Effect earned a career-best 111 figure winning the restricted Big Drama Stakes in May but was no match for Vekoma in the Carter and is another who may be held to a minor award.
Ellis Starr is the national racing analyst for Equibase. Visit the Equibase website for more on the race or to purchase handicapping products.
