What Justify has between the ears just as important as talent
If you want to get a glimpse into the mind of Justify, there might be no better human to talk to than Kerry Thomas.
Thomas, 49, of Chester County, Pennsylvania, has been described many ways, but equine sports psychologist is probably the most apt. He’s self taught, having learned the ways of the horse by studying wild herds in the West and then applying what he learned to thoroughbred racing.
His business, THT Bloodstock, consults with buyers at sales or owners considering claiming a horse, works with clients with underachieving horses and occasionally offers input on breeding to avoid reinforcing “genetic sensory deficiencies” or other negative traits. He’s even worked with horseplayers entered in handicapping tournaments.
But in all those scenarios, he looks for horses that possess “the elite psychology combined with the physical package.”
“When you find that, you’re getting the car and the driver,” he says.
While most of the year he works privately with clients, he and his director of equine services, Pete Denk, dive into public handicapping once a year with an analysis of the Kentucky Derby contenders that is sold by Brisnet.com.
To prepare that report, he goes through the prep races of each contender “frame by frame,” looking at their behavioral tendencies, how they react in stressful situations and their “dependencies and co-dependencies” with other members of the herd. And once in a great while he finds “a horse that can release themselves from the herd environment and take off.”
I urge readers to visit the THTBloodstock.com website, click on the Big Race Analysis tab and read Thomas and Denk’s piece on the Derby. It’s a fascinating read, particularly knowing what we now know about this year’s 3-year-olds.
As for Justify, whom he ranked as “the top Herd Dynamic” horse heading to Louisville, Thomas’ enthusiasm has only grown since then.
“He has incredible natural instincts in different environments,” he said this week. “It became clear early on that the very unique thing about him was the fact that he could respond to what’s happening behind as well as what’s going on in front of him.
“He has the mental aptitude and physical ability to win the Triple Crown. … I don’t see any horse competing anywhere in the U.S. that has the mental capacity to take him down. It’s just a matter of will he have the physical stamina to do it. The pressure for him is kind of compounded because all these other guys are strategizing how to beat him.”
We’ll learn the answer to that question June 9.
#RJhorseracing featured races
This week, the #RJhorseracing handicappers are tackling two turf races at Penn National racetrack: the $200,000 Pennsylvania Governors Cup Stakes and the $500,000 Penn Mile (Grade 2).
In the former, a 5-furlong dash for older horses on what could be a soggy lawn, the crowd ’cappers are going with the classy 2-1 favorite, Pure Sensation, who looks ready for his best after a prep at Gulfstream Park. They’re more daring underneath, with Grasshoppin (12-1) and Dubini (10-1) second and third.
I’ll give Dubini a look, hoping the 5-year-old gelding can tag ’em at the wire in his comeback.
In the Penn Mile for 3-year-olds, the crew narrowly favored 5-2 morning line favorite Maraud over Therapist (3-1) and Hawkish (5-1).
My copy desk colleague and regular crowd ’capper, Paul Pearson, recommends an exacta box with “Maraud, He’s Bankable (6-1) and Therapist.”
I’ll take a flyer with Smart Remark (12-1), who has run well in two turf starts and should get a nice stalking trip behind He’s Bankable.
Join the fun next week by dropping me a line via email or Twitter (hashtag #RJhorseracing).
Contact Mike Brunker at mbrunker@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-4656. Follow @mike_brunker on Twitter.
Ellis Starr's Penn Mile analysis
Encumbered makes his first start since finishing 13th of 14 in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf last fall and although it may be tough to return off a seven month layoff and run well enough to win a graded stakes race like the Penn Mile, I believe this colt can do just that. In the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf, Encumbered broke well to secure a good spot in third shortly after the start and held that position just outside eventual winner Mendelssohn before tiring with less than a quarter mile to go. Ignoring his poor try on dirt prior to that against Bolt d'Oro in the Frontrunner Stakes, Encumbered proved himself at the level, winning the Del Mar Juvenile Turf Stakes in September after breaking his maiden in his first turf route. Those two efforts earned 98 and 97 Equibase Speed Figures, respectively, which are better than any of the figures likely favorite Maraud earned during his two year old campaign.
Hawkish is also entered to run in the Pennine Ridge Stakes at Belmont the same day as the Penn Mile, but if trainer James Toner chooses this race, the horse must be taken very seriously. Sent to post at 3 to 1 odds in the Palm Beach Stakes in March, only the second start of his career, Hawkish finished fourth of seven and three lengths behind Maraud. Given six weeks off, Hawkish returned on April 15 to dominate a field of seven at this mile trip on turf, winning in a hand ride by nearly five lengths to earn a career-best 105 figure. That turned out to be a "key race," with both the runner-up and fourth-place finisher winning their next starts.
Maraud has won three of four races this year including two stakes races. He won the Palm Beach in March with a 105 figure before a poor fifth place effort in the Transylvania Stakes in April. But he redeemed himself last month with a strong win in the American Turf Stakes with a career-best and field high 113 figure. That type of effort can win the Penn Mile if repeated and if none of the others improve but he is likely to the prohibitive favorite and won't offer good value for win bets.
Ellis Starr is the national racing analyst for Equibase. Visit the Equibase website for more on the race or to purchase handicapping products.
