Belmont is major race regardless of field
The way the Belmont Stakes is being portrayed is a good example of why horse racing can be its own worst enemy. Each Triple Crown race is a big event, regardless of who shows up.
Obviously, we would like to see a Triple Crown chance in the Belmont. It greatly increases interest in the race having the Kentucky Derby and/or Preakness winner entered. However, the Belmont has been a key springboard for late-developing 3-year-olds.
I suspect some of the runners in the Belmont will be stars the second half of the year. In fact, I’ll make this prediction: More graded-stakes winners will come out of the Belmont than the 20-horse Kentucky Derby field. Most of the Belmont horses are bred to be true two-turn route runners, and routes are where the big money is.
In handicapping this Belmont, I don’t see a lot of early speed. The most probable leader into the first turn of the 1½-mile marathon is First Dude (7-2). However, First Dude will be my bet-against horse. He is the most logical choice to bounce off a huge runner-up effort in the Preakness.
The most likely hero of the Belmont is the late-running Ice Box (3-1), winner of the Florida Derby and runner-up in the Kentucky Derby. He reminds me of another Nick Zito star, 1991 Kentucky Derby winner Strike the Gold. Ice Box worked a sharp half-mile in 46 3/5 seconds at Saratoga, as Zito tried to maintain his sharp form. His caveat is his running style always puts him at the mercy of the early pace.
My next pick is Uptowncharlybrown (10-1), who races for the first time for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin. He replaced the colt’s former trainer, Alan Seewald, who died suddenly this spring. It’ll be seven weeks since the colt’s last start, and McLaughlin should have a fresh and dangerous long shot here.
My third choice is Fly Down (9-2), part of a Zito uncoupled entry. His six-length prep win in the Dwyer was visually impressive and came at Belmont Park. His half-mile rally gobbled up the Dwyer field and should play well Saturday.
A colt that has disappointed all spring is Drosselmeyer (12-1). The owners — WinStar Farm — also own Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver. They have liked Drosselmeyer all along, but he has yet to deliver. They will switch jockeys to try to change the colt’s fortunes — a la Bob Baffert with Lookin At Lucky. Mike Smith is the new rider on Drosselmeyer.
And finally Saturday, Tom Quigley of The Horseplayer Magazine and I will be guest handicappers at Mohegan Sun casino in Uncasville, Conn., for its free Belmont ballroom party.
■Â ENG’S PICKS — Ice Box, Uptowncharlybrown, Fly Down, Drosselmeyer.
Richard Eng’s horse racing column is published Friday in the Las Vegas Review-Journal. He can be reached at rich_eng@hotmail.com.