Fast start would benefit Lookin At Lucky
A key number for jockey Garrett Gomez in Saturday’s Kentucky Derby is 47 — as in seconds. Gomez has the tough task of winning the Derby from the dreaded one post with race favorite Lookin At Lucky (3-1).
No rail horse has won the Derby since Ferdinand in 1986. And it took a miracle ride by Bill Shoemaker to get that done. The rail post has been compromised the past two decades because of 20-horse fields becoming the Derby norm. As the horses leave the starting gate, the field compresses from the outside, putting great pressure on the inside posts.
That’s where 47 seconds comes into play. The faster the first half-mile is going into the first turn at Churchill Downs, the more strung out the field will be. Theoretically, a fast half-mile, like 46 seconds, should create openings for Gomez to place Lookin At Lucky. If the fraction is 47 seconds or slower, the field will bunch up, causing much crowding.
I see the first half-mile being fast for a logical reason. Bob Baffert is the trainer of Lookin At Lucky and an uncoupled stablemate, Conveyance, who is bullet-quick. Expect Baffert to tell jockey Martin Garcia to go for the lead and bait six or seven other speedballs to come along. A speed duel has the potential to stretch out the field, allowing the stalkers and closers a place to settle.
A horse I don’t like because of drawing post 20 is Sidney’s Candy (5-1). I know Big Brown won from 20 in 2008. But he was a super horse who ran five-wide all the way around. Sidney’s Candy would have to be the equal of Big Brown to win.
My top choice is the filly Devil May Care (10-1). Coincidentally, the lone Triple Crown win for trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey John Velazquez was on a filly, Rags to Riches, in the 2007 Belmont Stakes.
Devil May Care might have a better chance of winning the Derby than today’s Kentucky Oaks because many experts think Oaks favorite Blind Luck (6-5) is a cinch.
I will like Devil May Care even more should Amen Hallelujah run well in the Oaks. Last time out, Devil May Care handily beat Amen Hallelujah in the Bonnie Miss at Gulfstream.
Lookin At Lucky would be my top choice if not for his rail draw. Gomez should be able to fashion a decent trip because of reasons previously given. The colt has had a trio of trouble trips lately and is overdue for good racing luck.
Ice Box (10-1), for trainer Nick Zito, might be the best of the dead late closers. The Florida Derby winner will be sitting far back early and rallying fast late under Jose Lezcano.
My final pick is Super Saver, for two reasons: Calvin Borel rides the Churchill track like he invented it. Also, up to 5 inches of rain is predicted for Saturday, and Super Saver is among three entrants with a win over a sloppy surface. The other two are Backtalk and Devil May Care.
■ ENG’S DERBY PICKS — Devil May Care, Lookin At Lucky, Ice Box, Super Saver.
Richard Eng’s horse racing column is published Friday in the Las Vegas Review-Journal. He can be reached at rich_eng@hotmail.com.