Odds stacked against sweep of three races
The only sure thing exiting this year’s Kentucky Derby is this: Animal Kingdom is the lone horse capable of winning the Triple Crown. Horse racing’s Triple Crown, which consists of the Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes, has not been swept since Affirmed did it in 1978.
There are a myriad of theories as to why it has been 33 years since the last sweep. The strongest ones for me are mathematical. It’s extremely hard to win three straight races facing maximum fields of 20, 14 and 14 horses on short rest within a five-week window. It wouldn’t matter if it were claiming horses or in Grade 1 stakes races.
What will make the task more daunting for Animal Kingdom is this year’s Derby field was considered more evenly matched than usual. The biggest long shot in the field went off at only 39-1 odds. And a half-dozen horses who didn’t draw into the Derby field were considered equal in ability to the 19 who ran.
I suspect Animal Kingdom will be a strong morning-line favorite in the Preakness, as the Derby winner typically is. Historically, his main threats will come from other horses exiting the Derby. However, this year could be different. The quality of fresh newcomers such as Astrology, Dance City and Sway Away will pose formidable challenge to the Derby champ.
Two things going for Animal Kingdom are his first-rate trainer, Graham Motion, and being stabled at Fair Hill in Maryland. A steady hand and quiet surroundings will do him a world of good.
■ HOT AUGUST OPEN — Handicapping tournaments offer bettors the best positive expectancy in horse racing. That’s why horseplayers should welcome a new tournament, the Hot August Open, on Aug. 12 and 13 at the South Point.
The South Point also is starting a weekly qualifier every Thursday to win free entries in August. The entry fee for the "cool" qualifiers is $30; the Hot August Open will cost $400.
■ TWIN QUINELLA — An unidentified player won a Station Casinos record twin quinella payoff of $27,489 on Sunday at Fiesta Rancho. The win came a day after no one hit a special $20,000 Kentucky Derby twin quinella offered by Station. The bet is offered on days when a Southern California track is racing and starts with a jackpot of $5,000.
■ DERBY INTERRUPTUS — Racing fans in Albany, Ga., suffered a " ‘Heidi’ game" moment when WALB-TV accidentally switched to commercials halfway through the Kentucky Derby. By the time their operators corrected the problem, the race was over.
Richard Eng’s horse racing column is published Friday in the Las Vegas Review-Journal. He can be reached at rich_eng@hotmail.com.