Post position poses obstacle to Curlin, Big Brown
The number 12 will be very important to two strong racing favorites Saturday: Curlin and Big Brown. It is the post position Curlin drew for the $6 million Dubai World Cup and Big Brown drew for the $1 million Florida Derby.
Curlin appears to have an easier task. English bookmaker William Hill has listed the 2007 Horse of the Year as the 2-5 favorite. In fact, he is so heavily favored that the race book is offering a separate win pool on the other dozen Dubai World Cup horses, minus Curlin.
The Dubai World Cup is a 11/4 miles. Because of the triangular shape of the Nad Al Sheba main track, there is more than a quarter-mile run to the first turn. That should give Curlin jockey Robby Albarado time to move closer to the rail to save some ground.
That will be important because of a very long, tiring stretch run. Albarado will need to conserve Curlin’s energy for the latter part of the race.
While I like Curlin in the post position to win at Dubai, the 12 slot might prove too big of an obstacle for Big Brown in the Florida Derby.
When Gulfstream reconfigured its main track four years ago, the starting gate for a mile-and-one-eighths race moved to right before the first turn. Horses with outside posts cannot avoid losing ground running wide early or using up valuable energy rushing to the lead.
Racing fans remember that 2006 Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro won the Florida Derby from an outside post. Barbaro left from post 10 in a 10-horse field.
Even though Big Brown has only started twice, and never in a stakes, many experts compare him favorably to Curlin at similar stages of their careers. Because of that, I expect Big Brown to go off at odds lower than his 3-1 morning line.
For those who want to beat Big Brown, I’ll suggest two horses, Fierce Wind (6-1) and Elysium Fields (4-1). I lean more to Fierce Wind because he offers more value. Also, he did upset Big Truck, who in his next start won the Tampa Bay Derby over War Pass.
The Florida Derby will be televised live on ESPN2 beginning at 3 p.m. PDT.
The Dubai World Cup series of races will be televised both on HRTV, starting at 6 a.m., and on TVG, beginning at 7:30 a.m.
• CHAMPIONSHIP AT THE ORLEANS — The Las Vegas horse handicapping tournament season begins Thursday with the Championship at The Orleans.
The Championship will run April 3 through 5. The entry fee is $500.
The top 50 finishers will qualify for the 2009 Horseplayer World Series at The Orleans in February.
Richard Eng’s horse racing column is published Friday. He can be reached at rich_eng@hotmail.com.