Super Saturday prep races will go long way in shaping Kentucky Derby
When Keeneland moved the Blue Grass back one week this year, it set up a Super Saturday like no other before it.
Now three big Kentucky Derby preps will go Saturday: the Blue Grass, Wood Memorial and Santa Anita Derby. And even though just 21 horses entered in the three stakes, don’t confuse quantity for quality. These are three fine $1 million races.
That also tells me that a lot of owners and trainers are frank about where their 3-year-olds stand in the Derby picture.
Daredevil (9-5) for trainer Todd Pletcher is the favorite in the Wood at Aqueduct. As well as he’s run and as fast as he’s worked, Daredevil still must prove his ability going two turns. The best races of his life, in the Champagne and Swale, were both one-turn stakes.
I give El Kabeir (3-1) and Frosted (5-2) a chance for an upset. Both have good two-turn races on their resumes and are already fast enough to duel with Daredevil.
El Kabeir showed a new facet in his Gotham win last out. Jockey Chuck Lopez took him way back early to make one late run. It led to an impressive winning rally.
Carpe Diem (1-1) will be the heavy favorite of the Blue Grass. He has been my top choice all along in the NTRA 3-year-old poll. He has yet run a bad race and is bred to run fast and far. I almost hope he runs well, but loses, so as not to disturb his Derby price.
If there is a wake-up horse in the Blue Grass, it might be Ocho Ocho Ocho (6-1). He ran awfully in the San Felipe, but forgiving handicappers need to look further down at races that were fairly fast.
An interesting price play is Pepper Roani (12-1). Trainer Mike Maker added blinkers on his last two starts, and the improvement was like day versus night. If he improves again, he will be a factor in the Blue Grass.
The Santa Anita Derby could yield the Kentucky Derby favorite if Dortmund (3-5) wins easily enough. Trainer Bob Baffert could have the two chalks of the Kentucky Derby if Dortmund and American Pharoah, in next week’s Arkansas Derby, both win.
Bolo (4-1) and Prospect Park (7-2) both dogged Dortmund to the wire in the San Felipe. Of the two, I think Prospect Park has the higher ceiling moving forward to Churchill Downs.
He has improved in each start for trainer Cliff Sise and appears ready for a major breakthrough race.
If it doesn’t happen tomorrow, he could be my upset special for the Kentucky Derby.
Bolo ran well for third in the San Felipe, but he looks so much better on the turf. However, a horse gets only one chance to win the Derby, so he can switch back to grass down the road.
■ STATION TWIN QUINELLA — Station Casinos’ race books will be offering a $10,000 Twin Quinella bet each Saturday in April and on Friday, May 1, Kentucky Oaks day. On Kentucky Derby day, Saturday, May 2, Station will double it to a $20,000 Twin Quinella.
■ TRACK TALK MOVING TO KSHP — The “Track Talk” radio show will be moving to KSHP-1400 starting this weekend. “Track Talk,” featuring John Kelly, Patrick McQuiggan, Tom Quigley and Toby Turrell, will be on at 7:30 a.m. every Saturday and Sunday.
Richard Eng’s horse racing column is published Friday in the Las Vegas Review-Journal. He can be reached at rich_eng@hotmail.com. Follow him on Twitter: @richeng4propick.