Top 3-year-olds look sharp
A quote that football coach Bill Parcells likes to use is, “You are what your record says you are.” In that case, the record of Southern California-based horses prepping for the Kentucky Derby shows they are a lot better than first thought.
It starts with the big two of Pioneerof the Nile and The Pamplemousse, who finally will meet in the Santa Anita Derby on April 4. They are deserving leaders of the Southern California 3-year-olds. But it was sharp races back east by I Want Revenge and Papa Clem that made the big two look even stronger.
Pioneerof the Nile has won all three starts (Cash Call Futurity, Robert B. Lewis and San Felipe) since joining trainer Bob Baffert’s barn. Many experts were critical of his slow winning time in the San Felipe, but I would trust Baffert ahead of his critics. He has won the Kentucky Derby three times (Silver Charm, 1997; Real Quiet, 1998; War Emblem, 2002) and knows you don’t win the race in March but in May. I expect Baffert to turn up the screws on Pioneerof the Nile for the Santa Anita Derby with the intent of firing his best shot at Churchill Downs on May 2.
The Pamplemousse has won three straight races for Julio Canani, including consecutive stakes in the San Rafael and Sham. His speed figures are faster than Pioneerof the Nile. He also has better tactical speed, so he can be placed better in the race by jockey Alex Solis.
Pioneerof the Nile and The Pamplemousse are so respected that I Want Revenge and Papa Clem were sent away to greener pastures.
After twice finishing behind Pioneerof the Nile, trainer Jeff Mullins sent I Want Revenge to the Gotham at Aqueduct to run over organic dirt. The result was an eye-popping eight-length win with a Beyer speed figure of 113. That’s easily fast enough to win the Kentucky Derby. The victory reminded me of Bellamy Road winning the 2005 Wood Memorial. I’ll be interested to see how I Want Revenge runs in the Wood.
Papa Clem was a 17-1 long shot in the Lewis and ran second to Pioneerof the Nile. Trainer Gary Stute sent him to the Fair Grounds for the Louisiana Derby. Hustled to the front by Rafael Bejarano, he ran a game but distant second to Friesan Fire.
If Papa Clem is considered the fourth-best Derby hopeful based in Southern California and can run second in the Louisiana Derby, it’s a good sign for Baffert and Canani. They are sitting on colts that are likely to get better, not worse, on the road to the Kentucky Derby.
Richard Eng’s horse racing column is published Friday in the Las Vegas Review-Journal. He can be reached at Rich_Eng@hotmail.com.