Tracks offer Breeders’ Cup insight
I got a lot of feedback for my column last week breaking down where the 14 Breeders’ Cup race winners prepped. The final results were: Santa Anita, five; Europe, five; Belmont, Del Mar, Keeneland and Woodbine, one each.
The key angle was the 14 race winners prepped either on grass or synthetic surface, none on dirt. That led to the next question of which track offered the most important prep races before the Breeders’ Cup.
To answer that, I decided to grade the top three finishers in last year’s 14 Breeders’ Cup races by awarding 5 points for a win, 3 points for second and 1 point for a third-place finish. The results revealed this: Europe, 40; Santa Anita 32; Belmont, 15; Keeneland and Woodbine, 12; Del Mar, 11.
Euro invaders tallied five wins and seconds. Santa Anita horses had five wins, one second and four thirds. Belmont horses ran better than first thought with one win, two seconds and four thirds. If history repeats, the Breeders’ Cup power will come from horses prepping at Santa Anita or shipping in from Europe.
What I’m hoping to do for you is turn the negative of having the Breeders’ Cup two straight years at Santa Anita on a synthetic surface into a positive. Statistical data like this may never come again. Sure a track can host a Breeders’ Cup every four or five years. But the data will not be as accurate as for consecutive years.
In reality, the Breeders’ Cup leaders might be doing us horseplayers a favor. I will be studying the Santa Anita preps this weekend even more closely now. The Goodwood, Lady’s Secret, Yellow Ribbon, Oak Tree Mile on Saturday, plus the Ancient Title and Clement L. Hirsch on Sunday take on more significance.
As for the Euro shippers, I confess I’ll have some boning up to do. My research last year led to the nugget of finding Muhannak at $26.80 in the Marathon. When the Daily Racing Form Breeders’ Cup advance edition comes out, I’ll comb over the Euro horses.
In horse racing, the harder you work the luckier you’ll be betting on the Breeders’ Cup.
* GAMBLER’S — Author Steve Davidowitz will be at Gambler’s Book Shop at 2:30 p.m. Wednesday to sign his book “Betting Thoroughbreds for the 21st Century” and to record a podcast. The store is at 1550 E. Tropicana Ave.
Richard Eng’s horse racing column is published Friday in the Las Vegas Review-Journal. He can be reached at rich_eng@hotmail.com.