2 NFL season win totals to bet now; reason to wait on Raiders

Only the Cardinals (5, 0ver -120) and Texans (5½, o-130) have a lower number than the Bucs (6, -110) at the Westgate SuperBook and South Point sportsbook — which recently posted their NFL win totals, playoff and division odds.

But professional sports bettor Jeff Whitelaw believes Tampa’s total is too low. He bet the Buccaneers to go over six wins at even money after they opened at 6 (u-120).

Tampa went 8-9 last season after going 13-4 in 2021 and 11-5 in 2020, when it won the Super Bowl in Brady’s first year with the team. Baker Mayfield is expected to replace Brady at quarterback.

“That’s obviously a downgrade from Brady. But the way Brady played the last year or two, it wasn’t Tom Brady in his prime,” Whitelaw said. “Mayfield played very well last year for the Rams.

“You’re asking this Tampa team to basically go 7-10, and they’re in a moderately weak (NFC South) division.”

Viking quest

Whitelaw also wagered on the Vikings to go over 8½ wins (-120) in an NFC North division that will be without Aaron Rodgers for the first time since 2004.

Minnesota, which is 8½ (o-130) now after opening at -110, went 13-4 and won the division title last season as it produced double-digit wins for the fourth time in eight years.

“The Vikings are very consistent year in and year out, and they’re in a weak division,” Whitelaw said. “The Bears are soft, Green Bay without Rodgers is mediocre, and the Lions have improved. But I like to look at these teams that are in soft divisions.

“The number just seems a little low to me. They’re a pretty good team, and you’re basically asking them to be a half-game above .500.”

Just 8 wins, baby

The Raiders’ win total is 7½ (under-155) at the Westgate, and they’re +375 to make the playoffs and +1,250 to win the loaded AFC West.

The defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs, who have won seven straight division titles, are tied with the Bengals for the NFL’s highest win total at 11½. The Chargers are at 9½ and the Broncos are at 8½.

“The worst thing for the Raiders is if you put them in the AFC South, you can talk playoffs,” SuperBook oddsmaker Ed Salmons said. “But put them in the AFC West and they just hope they can get out of last place. They’re just in the wrong division.

“The Chargers are a team that everyone always expects to get better. One of these years, they’re going to really put it together. Then you have Denver, which is going to be dramatically improved just based on the coach. Sean Payton is a great coach compared to what they had.”

Whitelaw said the Raiders’ total is spot on. But he leans to the over, which pays +135.

“It’s safe to say they’re probably going to win seven or eight games,” he said. “The number’s pretty good. It’s going to be right in that area. But because of the plus-money, I would lean to the over.”

Besides the Raiders’ six games against the AFC West, they’ll play four games against the AFC East (Bills, Dolphins, Jets, Patriots), four against the NFC North (Lions, Vikings, Packers, Bears) and one each against the Colts, Steelers and Giants.

For Raiders bettors, Whitelaw recommends waiting for Circa to post its alternate win totals and either go over 6½ or under 8½ at minus-money.

“I like (Jimmy) Garoppolo. I think he’ll be a little bit better fit, even though (Derek) Carr might be the more talented quarterback,” he said. “Josh Jacobs is one of the best running backs in the league. If he comes back, they’ll have a very tough running game, and they can be very competitive.

“Plus, AFC teams get that extra home game this year.”

Line moves

The Cowboys’ total is up to 10 (-110) at the Westgate after opening at 9½ (o-130). The Rams are 7½ (u-175) after opening at u-155. The Seahawks are 8½ (o-140) after opening at o-120. The Jaguars are 9½ (o-135) after opening at o-120.

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.