Alex Smith among favorites for NFL Comeback Player of the Year
As far as Joe Theismann is concerned, Alex Smith already has clinched the 2020 NFL Comeback Player of the Year award.
On the same day that former Washington quarterback Theismann suffered a career-ending broken leg in 1985, Washington QB Smith suffered a gruesome broken leg on Nov. 18, 2018.
The injury led to an infection that threatened to take Smith’s leg and life. After undergoing 17 surgeries, he was activated by Washington on Aug. 16, and coach Ron Rivera said Smith has a chance to win back his starting job in competition with Dwayne Haskins and Kyle Allen.
“No matter what happens, he’s already won the award for comeback player of the year,” Theismann told ESPN.com.
The Westgate recently posted 25-1 odds on Smith to win the award, per request from a bettor. After taking two $200 wagers to win $5,000 on Smith, the book lowered his odds to 12-1.
But Westgate sportsbook director John Murray and vice president of risk Ed Salmons can’t see Smith winning the award, which has gone the past two years to quarterbacks (Ryan Tannehill, Andrew Luck) who have led their teams to the playoffs.
“I don’t even see Alex Smith playing a game this year,” Salmons said. “Will Alex Smith start a game this year? I’ll take 4-1 he doesn’t start.”
Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger is the 4-1 favorite at the Westgate to win the award, followed by Detroit QB Matthew Stafford (5-1) and New England QB Cam Newton (6-1).
“Stafford, Roethlisberger and Cam Newton are in much better situations to succeed,” Murray said. “They have talent around them. Washington is not going to make the playoffs.”
Roethlisberger led the league in passing yards in 2018 (5,129), but played in only two games last year before having season-ending shoulder surgery.
“The table is so set for him there with all the talent on Pittsburgh. We like the receiver they got from Notre Dame in (Chase) Claypool,” Murray said. “The Steelers look like a pretty good bet to make the playoffs.”
Stafford popular pick
The Lions started 3-4-1 with Stafford last season, but finished 0-8 after he missed the rest of the year with a back injury. Bettors at the Westgate are banking on Stafford to bounce back, as he has the most tickets and money to win the award. One gambler wagered $500 on Stafford at 7-1, and another bet $1,600 at 5-1.
“Those are the two biggest bets in the pool, and they’re both on Stafford,” Murray said. “It makes sense. A lot of people are pointing to the Lions as a possible surprise team this year.”
Newton, who played in only two games for Carolina last season because of a foot injury, opened at 30-1, but his odds plunged after signing with the Patriots.
“You need a narrative,” Murray said. “Roethlisberger, Stafford and Newton have great narratives because they were hurt last year.”
Spike Gronk
Tampa Bay tight end Rob Gronkowski has a great narrative because he was retired last season. But Salmons said the former Patriots star will be hard-pressed to win the award at 20-1.
“I keep raising him up,” he said. “In his last year in New England, he was terrible. He couldn’t play two years ago, and now, after he sat out a year, he’s going to be Comeback Player of the Year on a team with two good tight ends and receivers?
“It doesn’t make sense.”
Raging Rivers
Players returning from injuries won the award five straight years before Tannehill claimed the 2019 honor after a resurgent season in which he came off the bench to lead Tennessee to the AFC title game.
Likewise, Philip Rivers won the 2013 award after a resurgent season in which he led the Chargers to the playoffs. Murray likes Rivers’ chances to win the 2020 award at 10-1 odds after he left Los Angeles for Indianapolis.
Rivers threw the third-most interceptions (20) in the league last season and his fewest touchdown passes (23) in 13 years.
“Personally, I like Rivers a lot. I’ve been saying most of the summer the Colts are my pick to kind of surprise people this year,” Murray said. “I’m a big fan of (coach) Frank Reich, and their offensive line is much better than he had with the Chargers.
“The Colts are the clear favorites in the AFC South to me, and I like Rivers to really have a bounce-back year.”
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.