Best bets for Friday’s first full slate of baseball games

Mets ace and former Las Vegas Triple-A pitcher Jacob deGrom will start his quest for his third consecutive Cy Young Award when he takes the mound in New York against the Atlanta Braves at 1:10 p.m. in Friday’s first game.

Handicapper Micah Roberts is backing the Mets (-138) over the Braves as one of his best bets largely because of deGrom, the +275 favorite to win the National League Cy Young.

“DeGrom has looked good in his outings. He had a little back issue a couple weeks ago, but that’s not an issue now,” said Roberts (Sportsline.com). “He didn’t allow a run in his last three starts last season. He’s in his prime.”

Here are Roberts’ other best bets:

Diamondbacks-Padres (Under 8)

Roberts is high on Arizona this season, but expects it to struggle against San Diego ace Chris Paddack, who held the Diamondbacks to two runs on 12 hits in three starts against them last year. The scores were 2-1, 2-1 and 5-1.

“All three of his starts last year went under versus the Diamondbacks,” Roberts said. “The Diamondbacks’ lineup was really good last season as well, but sometimes a pitcher just has your team’s number.

“Hopefully (Arizona ace Madison) Bumgarner doesn’t have a blow-up inning.”

Marlins (+175) over PHILLIES

Miami has one of baseball’s lowest season win totals at 23½, but Robertssees plenty of value betting against Philadelphia’s Aaron Nola. Sandy Alcantara is the Marlins’ scheduled starter.

“The price against Alcantara is just way too high,” Roberts said. “The Phillies lost Nola’s last seven starts last season. It doesn’t mean anything here, but it’s not a positive. He’s not a pitcher that should be close to (-200) against anybody.

“Miami has a pretty good rotation. They’re not going to be the punching bags everybody thinks they’re going to be. They’re one of those teams I’m going to be taking a lot at +170 and +180.”

Rockies (+110) over RANGERS

Westgate sportsbook manager Randy Blum likes Colorado starter German Marquez, who went 7-3 with a 3.67 ERA on the road last season. He expects Texas starter Lance Lynn to regress this year after going 16-11 with a 3.67 ERA for the Rangers last season.

“I think that line is a touch high. I’m not a huge Lance Lynn fan,” Blum said. “Marquez has shown what he’s capable of as a pitcher, especially when you get him out of Coors Field.

“I would take a chance on Colorado as a slight (underdog).”

Home run king

Blum likes Bishop Gorman High School product Joey Gallo or Braves outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. to win the home run title. Gallo is 20-1 at William Hill, and Acuna Jr. is 20-1 at the Westgate.

“It depends on the new stadium in Texas, but Gallo took big steps as an overall hitter last year,” Blum said. “If he takes the next step this year, my money would be on him, especially if the ballpark plays the same as the old one.

“If Acuna keeps progressing and takes the next step, he can definitely win it, especially in a shortened season.”

Handicapper Wes Reynolds played Cincinnati’s Eugenio Suarez (20-1 at Westgate) and Colorado’s Trevor Story (60-1 at Westgate).

“I like Suarez just because I’m high on the team and Great American Ball Park is a hitter’s park,” said Reynolds (@WesReynolds1). “I thought it was a good price on Story. We know they can put up runs at Coors Field.”

Going streaking

To employ a simple and what has been a profitable strategy for Roberts, keep an eye on winning and losing streaks. He recommends betting on teams that have won three in a row and betting against teams that have lost three straight.

“That’s the cool thing about baseball. Streaks are everything,” Roberts said. “Especially right out of the gate. A team that’s hot, you keep riding them. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a team start 9-0 or 10-0. As soon as they get three games in, just keep betting them.”

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.