Bettors lose on Mahomes underdog trend; new Super Bowl favorite
It turns out you can bet against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs when they’re underdogs.
Mahomes was 12-1-1 against the spread as an underdog in his NFL career — including a win in the 2024 Super Bowl — before suffering his second defeat in that role Sunday when Kansas City lost 30-21 at Buffalo as a 2½-point underdog.
Bettors at Caesars Sportsbook and Station Sports were all over the Bills, who won their fourth straight regular-season meeting with the Chiefs while ending Kansas City’s 15-game winning streak.
“The Bills minus the points and over the total were the sides we were cheering against. Some big six-figure wagers on the Bills made us Chiefs fans, which is a rarity,” Caesars vice president of trading Craig Mucklow said. “It takes audacious bets to bet against Mahomes as a ’dog, but the customers cashed in style in another thriller between these two teams.”
Kansas City was covering and the game was under the total (47) when Buffalo was clinging to a 23-21 lead and facing fourth-and-2 at the Chiefs’ 26 with 2:17 left.
The Bills went for it, and Josh Allen burst up the middle for a 26-yard touchdown run to push the game over the total and put Buffalo bettors — including one at Caesars who won a $210,000 wager on the Bills -2½ — in position to cover. They did when Mahomes threw an interception with 1:17 left.
“You can’t kick a field goal there because then Mahomes is just going to go down the field and score a touchdown,” SuperBook director John Murray said. “Buffalo did the right thing. They’ve got the one quarterback in the league that’s just as good as Mahomes. He made the play, and they won the game.”
The Westgate won on the marquee matchup as bettors at the SuperBook pounded the Chiefs.
“That was one of our best games of the whole day,” Murray said. “There was sharp late money on Buffalo, but it was very one-sided on Kansas City.”
New Super Bowl favorite
The Chiefs not only had their win streak snapped, but they also saw their season-long run as Super Bowl favorites end.
The Lions replaced Kansas City as the consensus +350 favorites to win the Super Bowl after crushing the Jaguars 52-6 as 13½-point favorites.
“The one game we really got crushed on was the Lions,” Murray said. “They look like they’re the best team in the NFL. The public loves it. They didn’t think twice about laying 13½ against Jacksonville.”
A Caesars bettor wagered $150,000 to win $660,000 this week on Detroit to win the Super Bowl at +440.
The Chiefs are now the consensus +450 second choice, followed by the Bills (6-1), Eagles (7-1) and Ravens (8-1).
Book report
Favorites went 7-5 ATS on Sunday, and overs went 7-5. The Dolphins delivered another big loser to the SuperBook when they handed the Raiders a 34-19 defeat — their league-high sixth straight loss — as 8-point favorites.
There were four outright upsets, by the Saints (+1, beat Browns 35-14), Steelers (+3, beat Ravens 18-16), Colts (+4, beat Jets 28-27) and Seahawks (+6, beat 49ers 20-17).
Seattle quarterback Geno Smith scored the game-winning touchdown on a 13-yard scramble with 12 seconds left to kill all teasers and money-line parlays on San Francisco, which fell to 5-5.
“To get the Seahawks to win that game outright was, by far, the biggest game of the day,” Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “Two really disappointing teams right now that we thought could be Super Bowl contenders are the Niners and Ravens.”
Only 99 Circa Survivor contestants are still alive in the quest for the $14.3 million prize after four entries were eliminated by the 49ers and two by the Browns.
Eleven Survivor contestants were bailed out by Green Bay when quarterback Jordan Love ran for a go-ahead score with 2:59 left, and the Packers hung on to beat the Bears 20-19 when Karl Brooks blocked Cairo Santos’ 46-yard field goal try as time expired.
Bettors lost on Green Bay as a 6-point favorite but won on teasers and money-line parlays.
“It’s always the money-line parlays,” Murray said. “That’s two weeks in a row where we were going to have our biggest win of the week on a makeable field goal at the end of the game and it got blocked.
“Last week, if Denver beat Kansas City, it would’ve been our biggest win of the year. That was pretty frustrating.”
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.