Bettors ride favorites, overs to best day ‘by far’ of NFL season
There comes a time when all the cosmic tumblers have clicked into place and the universe opens itself up for a few seconds to show you what’s possible.
NFL bettors can relate to that quote from “Field of Dreams” after beating sportsbooks for the second straight week on a Sunday dominated by favorites and overs.
In fact, bettors could have cashed an eight-team parlay, which pays 160-1, in the afternoon games by blindly taking all four favorites and overs.
“It was a historical day for favorite and over bettors. Depending on when you bet the games, every favorite would have won, and (only) one failed to cover (Philadelphia),” Caesars Sportsbook vice president of trading Craig Mucklow said. “Week 12 of the 2023 season was previously the greatest day for customers when closing-line favorites went 12-4 against the spread and straight-up. This day easily eclipsed this.
“Easily the best Sunday morning slate for customers this year. Although on closing lines, the favorites went 5-2, the Bears and Colts were favorites for most of the week until sharp money flipped the sides. In reality, the favorites went 7-0 in the morning and 6-1 against the spread, leading to great parlay results for the betting public who wagered before Sunday.”
Amid all the favorites and overs (9-3-1 in Week 6), the biggest underdog on the board covered for the fifth time in six weeks in the Browns (+8, lost 20-16 to Eagles), and the game stayed under 42.
Afternoon delight
The afternoon eight-teamer featured the Chargers (-3, beat Broncos 23-16, over 37); the Steelers (-3½, beat Raiders 32-13, over 37); the Lions (-3½, beat Cowboys 47-9, over 53½); and the Falcons (-6, beat Panthers 38-20, over 46).
Station Sports suffered its first losing NFL Sunday of the season.
“This was, by far, the best day for the guests,” Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “All four afternoon games went the bettors’ way. Bettors did extremely well on the Lions game.
“The only games that went our way were the Colts upsetting the Titans and the Browns covering against the Eagles. Everything else was a really good outcome for the guests.”
Indianapolis opened the week as a slight favorite over Tennessee but closed as a 2½-point underdog in a 20-17 win.
Major decisions
The Westgate SuperBook dropped three of its four largest decisions en route to its second straight losing NFL Sunday. The Colts were their only big winner.
“It wasn’t a pretty day for us,” SuperBook vice president Jay Kornegay said. “The favorites didn’t treat us very well. But the lights will be on (Monday). We’ll be fine.”
The SuperBook lost big decisions on the Packers (-5½, beat Cardinals 34-13), Buccaneers (-3½, beat Saints 51-27) and Steelers, who whipped the Raiders at Allegiant Stadium.
“The Raiders were probably our biggest decision of the day, being in the afternoon,” Kornegay said. “It was pretty lopsided action on the Steelers.”
So-called sharp money on the Jaguars flipped them to 1½-point favorites over the Bears in the 6:30 a.m. London game. But Chicago was the smart side as it rolled to a 35-16 victory.
In the day’s marquee matchup, the Ravens held off the Commanders 30-23. Baltimore bettors either covered or pushed as the line was 6½ all week before closing at 7.
Washington kicked a field goal with 2:48 left to deal a push to some spread bettors and push the game over the total of 50½.
‘Gasoline on the fire’
The Texans (-6½) spoiled rookie quarterback Drake Maye’s first start for the Patriots, cruising to a 41-21 win and cover at New England.
Kornegay said the proliferation of favorites covering is partly due to the relatively low point spreads, noting that there has been only one double-digit favorite all season (49ers -10½ over Patriots in Week 4).
“The parity was treating us pretty good. It’s our best friend,” Kornegay said. “Now there was a little bit of an overadjustment.”
Esposito agrees.
“We had a lot of parity the first four weeks,” he said. “But the last two weeks a lot of offenses are jelling, and we’re starting to see more separation between the good teams and the bad teams.”
Using closing lines, favorites improved to 11-2 straight-up and 9-3-1 ATS this week after the Bengals covered as 4-point favorites over the Giants in a 17-7 win on Sunday night. Chase Brown broke free for a 30-yard touchdown run with 1:52 left to put Cincinnati outside the number.
Before the game, Kornegay said the books were huge New York fans.
“If Cincinnati covers, it’s just going to be gasoline on the fire,” he said.
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.