Biggest NFL betting overreactions, line moves after Week 1
One of the biggest challenges for bettors is to not overreact to what happens one week, especially in Week 1 of the NFL season.
“It’s the hardest thing in the world to do,” Westgate SuperBook vice president of risk Ed Salmons said.
The tricky part is to decipher which teams are not as good as they appeared and which ones are not as bad as the final score indicated.
“Things change dramatically week to week in the NFL, where usually even the worst team is competitive with the best team,” Circa sportsbook manager Chris Bennett said. “A team will look good one game and play a team that looked bad the next game, and the tendency is to overweigh each team’s most recent game.”
To combat that perception, which is baked into the line, injuries and motivation are the biggest factors to consider, Bennett said.
“Were there any impactful injuries that happened the previous game or guys coming back that missed the previous game?” he said. “If a team lost its first game, maybe that lights a fire in their second game. Maybe it helps the Bills against the Dolphins, because the Bills lost a game they were favored in and the Dolphins won a game they were an underdog in.
“It’s tough to put those pieces together and know what to expect. But that’s the sort of typical bias we all have, as bettors and bookmakers, to overreact to what happened recently.”
Look-ahead line moves
The SuperBook posts look-ahead lines on the NFL each Tuesday — Week 3 numbers are already up, for example — and tweaks them after Sunday’s games.
Denver soared from -2½ at Jacksonville on the look-ahead line to -6 after the Broncos beat the Giants 27-13 and the Jaguars were whipped by the Texans 37-21.
“That perception is kind of the perfect storm,” Salmons said. “Denver looked great in the preseason and against the Giants, and now they go to Jacksonville. The public has one thing in their mind, and that’s Houston killing Jacksonville.
“I’m sure if that number clicks to 7, that’s the buy number for the wiseguys. But the public doesn’t care. They’re betting Denver because the public wants to bet the team they perceive as better.”
After the Saints smoked the Packers 38-3, they were made 3½-point favorites at Carolina after the look-ahead line opened at pick’em.
“In the public eye, Carolina is a bad team,” Salmons said. “I’m sure the public will be all over New Orleans.”
Oddsmakers didn’t overreact to Green Bay’s ugly loss, partly because it’s hosting the lowly Detroit Lions on “Monday Night Football.” The Packers are 11-point favorites after the look-ahead line was 10½.
“I can’t believe the Packers are that bad or the Saints are that good,” Bennett said.
The Cardinals crushed the Titans 38-13. But Salmons said Arizona, -3½ over Minnesota after the line opened at 3, is not as good as that score suggests.
“Arizona looked awesome,” he said. “But whenever a team looks so good one week, they always bounce back in the other direction. It’s hard to stay at that level.
“Really, the only team for years that could play through that was the Patriots.”
Rams overrated
Salmons and Bennett said the Rams’ defense might be a bit overrated after Los Angeles beat the Bears 34-14. The Rams are -3½ at Indianapolis.
“I was not impressed by the Rams defense,” Bennett said. “I don’t think the Bears have a great offense, but they were able to give Andy Dalton time and were able to move the ball.”
Eagles underrated
Philadelphia opened with an impressive 32-6 victory at Atlanta, and it might not be an overreaction to consider the Eagles a title contender, at least for the NFC East crown.
“Before the season started, we did have sharp action on the Eagles to win the conference and have the best record in the NFL,” Bennett said. “It was at long odds … but it’s just interesting that someone thought it was worthwhile.”
The Eagles are 3-point home underdogs to the 49ers after the line was at 3½.
The Chiefs were 3½-point underdogs at Baltimore last season, when they rolled to a 34-20 victory. Kansas City, coming off a comeback win over Cleveland, is a 3½-point road favorite over the injury-riddled Ravens.
“That’s a pretty big swing,” Bennett said. “The Ravens, obviously, are not looking great, especially their pass defense, which is pretty significant against the Chiefs’ passing game. We’re probably going to need the Ravens for a lot of money.”
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.