Bills ascend to Super Bowl favorites after upset win over Lions
The Bills are now the favorites at Boyd Gaming to win the Super Bowl after they snapped the Lions’ franchise-record 11-game winning streak Sunday in a 48-42 victory in Detroit.
Buffalo, +420 at Boyd to win it all and a +425 co-favorite with the Lions at Caesars Sportsbook, never trailed en route to the upset as a 2½-point underdog in a possible Super Bowl preview.
The betting public lost on Detroit, including a Caesars bettor who wagered $220,000 on the Lions -2. But bettors pounded the over, which closed at 56 at several books and soared over the highest total of the NFL season by 44 points.
“Every week, the Detroit over is our biggest position for the game and same-game parlay results,” Caesars Sportsbook vice president of trading Craig Mucklow said. “A 55½-point total could not put the customers off, and when the game of the week has 90 points and is the highest-scoring game of the year, it is a tremendous result for the bettors.”
Buffalo, which extended its franchise record with 30-plus points in its eighth straight game, has scored 90 points in its past two games after last week’s 44-42 loss to the Rams.
“If this was a Super Bowl preview, what do you make the total if these two teams play in New Orleans in a dome on a fast track?” Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “You may see one of the highest Super Bowl totals ever.”
The early Super Bowl line at the Westgate SuperBook is a pick’em, and the total ticked up from 50 to 51½ on Sunday night.
The Eagles — who won their 10th straight game and covered as 5½-point favorites in a 27-13 win over the Steelers — are the 4-1 co-favorites with the Lions at the Westgate to win the Super Bowl.
The Chiefs — who ran their NFL-best record to 13-1 and snapped an 0-7 slide against the spread in a 21-7 win over the Browns as 4-point favorites — are tied with the Bills for the +450 third choice.
“The Bills certainly have the best player in the league. Josh Allen is clearly the MVP right now,” Westgate vice president of race and sports John Murray said. “But there are a lot of question marks about that Buffalo defense. I don’t know if it’s sustainable. Whereas I look at Kansas City, and everyone’s making fun of them because they barely win every week. But look how good their defense is.
“Patrick Mahomes doesn’t have to do nearly as much to get a win as Allen does. It’s tough to ask Allen to score a touchdown on basically every possession in the playoffs.”
Book report
Favorites went 9-4 against the spread, and overs went 7-5-1.
The best games for bettors were the Chiefs, Bengals (-6, beat Titans 37-27), Cardinals (-6, beat Patriots 30-17) and Broncos (-4½, beat Colts 31-13).
Indianapolis was on the verge taking a 20-7 lead over Denver early in the third quarter when Jonathan Taylor inexplicably dropped the ball a split second before crossing the goal line on what would have been a 41-yard touchdown run.
The blunder resulted in a touchback, and Denver turned things around from there, scoring the final 24 points of the game, including Nik Bonitto’s defensive touchdown when he intercepted a lateral and returned it 50 yards for a score.
“The Colts loss was really bad. Having Taylor drop that ball changed the whole complexion of that game,” Esposito said. “That was just catastrophic. That was the largest straight-bet game of the day.”
Bettors at Station Sports also won on the Jets, who scored two touchdowns in the final 3:24 to beat the Jaguars 32-25 and cover as 3-point favorites.
Davante Adams caught a 71-yard TD pass with 3:24 remaining and a 41-yard catch that set up Breece Hall’s 1-yard TD run with 1:05 left to deal Jacksonville bettors a tough beat.
Survivor sweat
The best games for the books were the Bills, Buccaneers (+3, beat Chargers 40-17) and Saints, who covered as 7½-point underdogs in a 20-19 loss to the Commanders.
New Orleans rallied from a 17-0 second-half deficit and had a chance in the final seconds to stun Washington and five of the remaining 50 contestants in Circa Survivor still in the running for the $14.3 million prize.
After catching a break from officials who mistakenly stopped the clock in the final seconds, Saints QB Spencer Rattler threw a 1-yard TD pass to Foster Moreau as time expired. New Orleans then went for the win, but Rattler couldn’t complete the 2-point conversion pass.
Favorites went 10-3 on the money line.
“Money-line favorites continue to be the darlings of the bettors,” Mucklow said. “When the only favorite to lose in the morning is the Carolina Panthers, you know it’s an excellent day for NFL customers.”
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.