Dewey: NCAA Tournament tips from pro sports bettors
Recreational sports bettors typically play favorites. But that changes in the NCAA Tournament, which has long been known for bracket busters, buzzer-beaters and Cinderellas.
I asked three professional sports bettors for tips on betting March Madness and one piece of advice from Cris Zeniuk is not to shy away from favorites.
“An oddity is that the tournament is known for upsets and underdogs. But when it comes down to it, better teams don’t rest their starters like the regular season,” said Zeniuk (@lasvegascris). “They generally aren’t going to let off the gas pedal. They aren’t putting subs in as much. Don’t be afraid to lay points.”
Here are a few other betting tips to consider:
Consult KenPom
To help forecast the next NCAA champion, check the rankings at KenPom.com.
Since 2002, when college basketball analytics guru Ken Pomeroy started the site, 17 of the 19 NCAA champions have ranked in the top 20 in his offensive and defensive efficiency ratings. Defending national champion Baylor, which ranked No. 2 on offense and No. 22 on defense, was one of the exceptions, along with 2014 champ Connecticut (Nos. 39/10).
Only five teams in this tournament fit the criteria: Gonzaga (Nos. 1/7), Arizona (Nos. 5/20), Baylor (Nos. 9/14), Houston (Nos. 10/11) and UCLA (Nos. 15/12).
Roll with it
Rather than place a futures bet, Zeniuk said it almost always pays more to make a money-line wager on a team in its tourney opener and then keep rolling it over.
“That is the best advice to be had for any tournament or playoff,” he said.
Manage your money
Paul Stone and Terry Gomez said money management is critical for success.
“We’ve probably all heard the adage, ‘Failing to plan is planning to fail,’ and that can certainly be the case in betting March Madness,” said Stone (@PaulStoneSports). “Don’t bet your entire bankroll on Thursday’s opening set of games due to being overly excited and a mindset that team A or B can’t possibly lose.
“Betting the tournament is a marathon, not a sprint, and even an outstanding bet has a 40 to 45 percent chance of losing. Also, if you’re interested in winning and not just having skin in the game over a weekend of beer and betting with new and old friends, avoid betting parlays and stick to individual sides and totals.”
Apps and outs
Gomez, who won last year’s Last Man Standing NCAA Tournament contest at Station Casinos, said to make sure you have as many outs as possible.
“If you use apps to bet, have as many different accounts as possible,” said Gomez (@TerryGomezLV). “Be sure to shop around for the best number.”
Take a 12
Oregon State continued the tradition of No. 12 seeds knocking off 5 seeds last year, and advanced to the Elite Eight. At least one 12 seed has beaten a 5 seed in 31 of the last 36 tourneys. Based on the lines, the most likely 12-5 upset is New Mexico State (+7) over Connecticut.
‘Dogs with 3s
Stone recommends bettors identifying underdogs in opening-round games that can shoot the 3-pointer.
“The favored team from the more prestigious conference carries the extra burden of expectation and their lesser-known opposition may play free and easy with nothing to lose,” he said.
Stone likes No. 13 South Dakota State (+2) over No. 4 Providence. The Jackrabbits lead the nation in 3-point field-goal percentage (44.2).
LMS advice
Gomez, who went 10-0 ATS last year to top a field of 2,065 entries in Last Man Standing, offered three contest tips.
1. “Look to match stale contest lines with games you might already like.”
2. “Try to stay away from popular or trendy picks. You don’t want to go down with the herd if the trendy pick loses. The value often lies in the games not a lot of people are betting.”
3. “Be sure to set reminders to get your picks in. Picks must be turned in in person at any Stations Casino. You don’t want to lose out by forgetting to turn your pick in.”
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.