Hawaii among college football teams to consider fading
With the college football season starting Saturday with a handful of games, let’s take a look at several teams to consider fading.
One is Mountain West member Hawaii, which finished last among FBS teams against the spread last season (1-10-1) and has the worst spread record over the past three years (10-27-1).
The Rainbow Warriors, who host UNLV on Nov. 17, appear headed for another rough season after losing their starting quarterback and leading receiver.
The Warriors kick off the season Saturday at Colorado State, which is a 14½-point favorite and has won and covered the past four meetings between the Mountain West schools.
Besides Hawaii, which is 4-20 ATS in its past 24 conference games, other weak teams to consider wagering against this season include Kansas, Oregon State, Texas-El Paso and San Jose State — which all have win totals under 3.
Weakest teams
A bettor at the Westgate sports book placed a large wager on Oregon State to finish under 2½ wins, and the under is now a minus 185 favorite. The Beavers, who went 1-11 straight up and 3-9 ATS last season, have the nation’s lowest win total (2) at the South Point sports book. Oregon State allowed 44 points per game last season.
Kansas gave up 46 ppg en route to a 1-11 record and is 3-33 (13-23 ATS) in three seasons under coach David Beaty. The long-suffering Jayhawks have the second-worst spread record over the past eight years (37-58-1) behind Connecticut (35-60-3). Neither team is expected to improve this season, as Kansas’ win total is 2½ and the Huskies’ 3.
The Jayhawks are 3-60 in Big 12 games in the past seven seasons.
“I don’t know who they can beat in that league,” handicapper Bruce Marshall said. “Beaty is in trouble this year.”
Coaching carousel
Marshall, longtime editor of The Gold Sheet, said to consider fading teams with coaches on the hot seat. Tennessee went 3-9 ATS in that situation last year, when Butch Jones was fired late in the season.
“If they know a coaching change is coming, some players can get totally distracted,” said Marshall (Goldsheet.com). “Everybody thinks about transferring in that situation.”
Marshall said Illinois coach Lovie Smith’s job is in jeopardy after the Fighting Illini went 5-19 straight up and 10-14 ATS in his first two seasons.
“He’s just not cutting it for Illinois,” Marshall said.
Other teams Marshall said could change coaches are San Jose State, East Carolina and Bowling Green.
Overrated teams
For the past 16 years, at least one top-10 team in The Associated Press preseason Top 25 poll has finished the season unranked. Conversely, in 24 of the past 25 seasons, an unranked preseason team has finished in the top 10.
Handicapper Bernie Fratto, an ESPN 1100 radio host, picks No. 9 Auburn to end the season unranked and South Carolina to finish in the top 10.
“Auburn has got to play road games at Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Alabama and Georgia, and they start the season with a neutral-site game against Washington,” said Fratto (@BernieFratto). “South Carolina is coming off a great bowl victory over Michigan, and coach Will Muschamp has 10 starters back on offense, including quarterback Jake Bentley.
“It’ll come down to beating Georgia at home.”
Westgate sports book manager Ed Salmons said Louisiana State, Mississippi and Washington State might be worth fading.
“A team like LSU is fairly recognizable, most people have respect for them and they get respect in the line,” he said. “If things don’t go in the right direction, you can find value in fading that team.
“Ole Miss is a little on the overrated side, and Washington State might be down a little.”
Cougars coach Mike Leach was in the running for the Tennessee job before returning to Washington State, which has the fewest returning starters (nine) in the Pac-12. The team also is dealing with the devastating loss of projected starting quarterback Tyler Hilinski, who committed suicide in January.
The Rebels’ receiving corps is considered one of the best in the country, but the team is on probation and starting quarterback Shea Patterson transferred to Michigan.
“Teams that go on probation and get their scholarships cut don’t have the depth, because every team goes through a ton of injuries,” Salmons said. “And when you don’t have backups at a (Southeastern Conference) school, you’re going to get punished.”
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Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.