NCAA Tournament betting tips: From KenPom to fading underdogs

Now, with four of the most compelling days on the sports calendar fast approaching, here are some betting tips that will hopefully help you win a few bucks amid the madness.

In KenPom we trust

Look no further than KenPom.com to forecast the next NCAA champion.

Since 2002, when college basketball analytics guru Ken Pomeroy started the site, 17 of the 18 NCAA champions have ranked in the top 20 in his offensive and defensive efficiency ratings.

Four teams fit that criteria: Gonzaga, which ranks first on offense and 12th on defense; Michigan, which ranks sixth and fifth; Illinois, seventh and sixth; and Houston, ninth and eighth.

Gonzaga is the 2-1 favorite at the Westgate to win the title, and Michigan is 5-1. Illinois is 9-1 at Circa, and Houston is 18-1 at William Hill.

But don’t bother placing a futures bet.

Roll with it

It almost always pays more to make a money-line wager on a team in its tournament opener and then keep rolling it over than it would on a futures bet.

“That is the best advice to be had for any tournament or playoff,” said professional sports bettor Cris Zeniuk (@lasvegascris). “It’s very, very rare to find futures odds lower than running your initial amount of money all the way through via the money line.”

Get your apps in gear

To avoid waiting in line at sportsbooks and to shop for the best lines, bettors should sign up for multiple mobile apps. Veteran Las Vegas oddsmaker Dave Sharapan suggests doing so sooner than later.

“Everything is half capacity, and the books are at half the number of staff, so the lines may be worse this year than they ever have been,” said Sharapan (@SportsbkConsig). “You never want to get shut out. You give yourself outs if you sign up for apps. You have flexibility to not wait in line, make a bet from anywhere and you can bet in-game.

“And do it before the games start (March 19). Thursday should be your travel day. You’re going around depositing money so you can have options.”

Busting brackets

When it comes to filling out a bracket, Wagertalk.com handicapper Ralph Michaels recommends doing so in reverse order, preferably by picking a top-3 seed as the champion.

“If you look at the last 16 years, the national champion has been a 1 seed 11 times, a 2 seed twice and a 3 seed twice,” said Michaels, who noted No. 7 seed Connecticut was the lone exception in 2014.

And don’t feel beholden to bet games based on your bracket. Michaels said that’s the No. 1 mistake made by novice bettors.

“Have fun filling out your bracket,” he said. “But if there’s value on another team, you should bet it regardless of what the bracket says.”

Trending places

Here are some tournament trends to consider, courtesy of Michaels (@CalSportsLV):

— No. 12 seeds are 27-14-3 ATS (65.8 percent).

— Underdogs of 17 points or more are 1-42 straight up but 25-16-2 ATS (60.9).

— Underdogs of 17 points or more in a game with a total of 140 or less are 16-5-1 ATS (76.2), and the over is 16-6 (72.7).

— Teams with more than nine days of rest are 30-19 ATS (61.2).

— The over in games involving Big Ten teams is 47-35-1 (57.3).

— The Atlantic Sun and Summit League are a combined 11-2 ATS.

— The Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference and Big Sky are 1-8-1 ATS.

Keep calm and fade public darlings

Handicapper Paul Stone urges gamblers to pace themselves during the multiweek betting bonanza and wager against public underdogs.

“Don’t increase your unit size just because it’s March Madness. The goal is to grow your bankroll, not risk it all the first day of the tournament,” said Stone (@PaulStoneSports). “There used to be some built-in value on betting underdogs the first couple of days. But it’s now en vogue for the general public to back underdogs.

“When the public bobs, I often look to weave. So I would recommend searching for undervalued favorites the first two days.”

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.