NCAA Tournament sharp plays, best bets

One of my favorite March Madness memories took place at the Westgate in 2018 when Virginia became the first No. 1 seed to lose to a No. 16 seed.

Shortly after the Maryland-Baltimore County Retrievers stunned the Cavaliers in a 20-point win as 20½-point underdogs, UMBC alumnus John Doyle — wearing a UMBC shirt and dog mask and carrying an oversized dog bone — was carried out of the sportsbook by his buddies as they chanted “UMBC.”

Two years after Virginia bounced back to win the national title, many bettors are banking on the Cavaliers to get knocked out again in the first round. Or at least fail to cover the spread against Ohio, which has been bet down to a 7-point underdog after the line opened at 10½.

“Sharp guys are on Ohio, and the interesting thing is that the public is on Ohio, too,” Westgate sportsbook director John Murray said. “Virginia will be a big need for us.”

South Point, BetMGM and William Hill also reported sharp action on Ohio. The Bobcats also are the best bet for Goldsheet.com handicapper Bruce Marshall.

“After a late-season COVID pause, Ohio caught fire in the MAC tourney behind likely NBA-bound guard Jason Preston and a potent, well-coordinated lineup,” Marshall said. “Virginia lacks the sort of match-winners it had during its title run two years ago and is leaning a bit too heavily on Marquette transfer Sam Hauser for offense.”

Sharp plays

Other sharp plays on Saturday include UC Santa Barbara (+7) over Creighton, Abilene Christian (+9) over Texas and Colorado (-6½) over Georgetown.

Sharp plays on Friday’s games include Liberty (+7½) over Oklahoma State, North Texas (+7½) over Purdue and Loyola-Chicago — which shot up from a 2-point favorite to -5½ over Georgia Tech after Atlantic Coast Conference Player of the Year Moses Wright was ruled out for the Yellow Jackets.

Friday best bets

Virginia Tech and Florida will tip off the tournament at 9:16 a.m. Friday.

■ VSiN host Mitch Moss said his best bet is the 10th-seeded Hokies (Pick) over the Gators.

“I’m not high on Florida,” said Moss (@MitchMossRadio). “Virginia Tech gave North Carolina a game in the ACC tournament after a long COVID break.

“Plus, ACC teams with double-digit seeds are 12-4-1 ATS since 2012.”

■ Texas-based handicapper Paul Stone likes Texas Tech (-4) over Utah State.

“The Big 12 is either the toughest or second-toughest conference in all of college basketball,” said Stone (@PaulStoneSports). “A lot of pundits are projecting Texas as a Final Four team. It’s important to note that Texas Tech came within an eyelash of beating the Longhorns three times this season.”

Stone noted that the Mountain West is 22-49 straight up in the NCAA Tournament.

■ Handicapper Doug Fitz likes Morehead State (+13) over West Virginia.

“My numbers show West Virginia only seven points better, so there’s value in this inflated line,” said Fitz (SystemPlays.com). “Morehead State falls into a system that is 165-98-8 for 62.7 percent since 2005.”

Fitz noted that Morehead State is 12-3 ATS as an underdog. West Virginia is 9-12 ATS and on an 0-3 spread skid.

Saturday best bets

■ Handicapper Kelly Stewart likes Saint Bonaventure (+1½) over Louisiana State.

“The wrong team is favored here,” said Stewart (@KellyInVegas). “The Bonnies quietly won the Atlantic 10 tournament and have covered six of their last seven.

“Take the better defense plus the points. The Bonnies are a gift in round one.”

■ Handicapper Brian Edwards likes Eastern Washington (+10½) over Kansas.

“Eastern Washington has won 13 of its last 14 games, with 10 of those wins coming by double-digit margins. The Eagles are 3-1 ATS in four games as underdogs, and they’re catching a big number against a Kansas team that isn’t on the level of most Bill Self teams,” said Edwards (@Vegasbedwards). “Making matters worse, Jalen Wilson, who averages 12.1 points and 8.2 rebounds per game, is out for Kansas, and another double-figure scorer, David McCormack, isn’t arriving to Indiana until Friday and missed the Big 12 tournament due to health and safety protocols.”

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.