NFL draft props: How many QBs will go in first round?
The first round of the NFL draft hasn’t seen six quarterbacks selected since the famed quarterback class of 1983, which produced Hall of Famers John Elway, Dan Marino and Jim Kelly.
Will six QBs be taken in the first round on April 29? You can bet on that prop at Las Vegas sportsbooks. Under 5½ QBs in the first round is a -410 favorite at William Hill and over 5½ is +330.
“It looks like five’s a lock,” William Hill sportsbook director Nick Bogdanovich said. “Who’s going to be the sixth?”
Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence is -10,000 at BetMGM to be the first overall pick by the Jaguars. Brigham Young QB Zach Wilson is -1,100 to be the second overall pick by the Jets.
Alabama QB Mac Jones is -225 at William Hill to go No. 3 to the 49ers. Ohio State QB Justin Fields’ draft position over-under is 4½ at William Hill. North Dakota State QB Trey Lance’s total is 6½.
After that starting five, the next tier of QBs includes Florida’s Kyle Trask, Stanford’s Davis Mills and Texas A&M’s Kellen Mond.
Sunset Station sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said he wouldn’t be shocked if six QBs went in the first round, mostly because of the fifth-year option teams receive on first-round picks.
“I would say five, but I wouldn’t rule out a sixth guy that goes at the tail end of the first round when someone trades back up because of that fifth year of eligibility,” he said. “It’s such a quarterback-driven league and I don’t remember there ever being so many question marks with teams. That’s why I think Trask or Mills might sneak into the first round.”
‘Information driven’
Books also offer props on the first non-quarterback taken and first running back, wide receiver, linebacker, defensive lineman, cornerback and defensive player picked, along with the number of players picked in the first round at each position.
“These draft props, it’s all tricky,” Bogdanovich said. “They’re insanely hard to make. Definitely not book-friendly, more player-friendly. It’s all information driven.
“All you can do is keep your eyes glued to Twitter and be prepared to move them fast. The last few years it’s really picked up steam. It’s clear a lot of people are into it.”
Including Esposito.
“I’m a total draftnik,” he said. “I love the drama of it and the soap opera. For me, it’s like football starting.”
Fields closes gap
Bogdanovich said the third overall pick prop has drawn some early action. Fields moved from the +225 second choice to +200 on Thursday afternoon, with Lance the +375 third pick.
“That one’s live because here’s a guy in Mac Jones who was projected to go 15 (to the Patriots) and now he’s third,” he said. “So you’ve got to believe Fields has a fighting chance or maybe the Niners love Lance.”
First non-QB
The Falcons have the fourth pick, and Esposito expects them to select Florida tight end Kyle Pitts, the +140 favorite to be the first non-QB selected. Oregon tackle Penei Sewell is the +150 second choice, and Louisiana State wideout Ja’Marr Chase is the +250 third pick.”
First position
Chase is the -500 favorite to be the first receiver picked over Alabama’s DeVonta Smith (4-1) and Jaylen Waddle (6-1).
Alabama’s Najee Harris is the -150 favorite to be the first running back picked over Clemson’s Travis Etienne (+180).
Penn State linebacker Micah Parsons is the +110 favorite to be the first defensive player picked over Alabama cornerback Patrick Surtain II (+175).
“It’s possible no defensive player goes in the top 10,” Esposito said. “If one does go, I think it will be Parsons.”