NFL playoff lines: Chiefs over Bills, Packers over Bucs

That may be true. But according to Westgate sportsbook vice president Jay Kornegay, the Chiefs still would be home underdogs to the Bills in the AFC championship without Mahomes, who was knocked out of Sunday’s 22-17 win over the Cleveland Browns with a concussion.

Kornegay and other Las Vegas oddsmakers expect Mahomes to return to action against Buffalo, which is why defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City is a 3-point home favorite in the 3:40 p.m. second game of what shapes up as a spectacular NFL conference championship Sunday.

Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers are 4-point favorites over Tom Brady’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC title game, scheduled for 12:05 p.m. at Lambeau Field.

“Both matchups are great. You’ve got two young stars in the AFC and you’ve got two of the best who ever played the game in the NFC,” Sunset Station sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “Having Brady and Rodgers in the NFC is outstanding. We’re going to have a huge handle on that game.

“In the AFC, Buffalo has played so well winning eight games in a row and you can put Josh Allen in the conversation with Rodgers for MVP.”

Line moves

With Mahomes and the Chiefs in charge with a 19-3 halftime lead, the Westgate opened KC as a 4-point favorite over Buffalo, which beat Baltimore 17-3 on Saturday and covered as 2½-point favorites.

But the Chiefs were reposted at -2½ after the game — in which Mahomes was ruled out after getting tackled around the head midway through the third quarter — and the line quickly moved to 3. The total is 54½.

“Most people believe he’s going to play in this game even though he might not be 100 percent,” Kornegay said.

As soon as the Westgate opened Green Bay -4½ over Tampa Bay, the book took some money on the Buccaneers that moved the line to 4. The total is 51.

The Packers (-7) covered in a 32-18 win over the Rams on Saturday in the only divisional game that went over. The Bucs (+3) pulled off the only outright upset in Sunday’s 30-20 win over the Saints.

Books small winners

Favorites went 2-0 ATS on Saturday and 0-2 ATS on Sunday as Kansas City (-8½) failed to cover for the ninth straight game (0-8-1 ATS).

“The Chiefs are my co-favorite team with the Seahawks,” said MGM Resorts director of trading Jeff Stoneback, a Seattle native and lifelong Seahawks fan. “Because all they do is win and they don’t cover.”

Stoneback said BetMGM in Nevada was a small winner on the weekend. The book lost on the Packers despite taking a $330,000 straight bet on the Rams +7.

“I think he was the only guy who bet the Rams,” he said.

A William Hill bettor won a $400,000 wager on Green Bay at Caesars Palace that paid $363,636. But William Hill sportsbook director Nick Bogdanovich said the book had a decent day because the Bills burned all teasers on the Ravens and the game stayed under.

Sharps pound Browns

A flood of late sharp money came in on the Browns, dropping the line from 10 to as low as 7½. Cleveland suffered a bad break when Rashard Higgins fumbled at the KC 1 late in the first half and the ball went out of the end zone for a touchback.

But the Browns salvaged a cover on a long TD drive in the second half after Mahomes went out in which they converted two fourth downs.

Henne scrambled 13 yards on third down, then completed a fourth-and-inches pass to Tyreek Hill with just over a minute left as coach Andy Reid’s gamble to seal the win paid off.

“That was a gutsy call, for sure, with your backup quarterback,” Kornegay said. “Nobody thought he was going to snap it and throw a short pass in the flat.”

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.