NFL preseason betting tips; sharp plays on Raiders-Vikings
Betting on NFL preseason games has long been derided. But the truth is exhibition football has been a longtime moneymaker for sharp bettors.
“I beat exhibition football for probably 30, 35 years,” said Billy Walters, widely regarded as the most successful sports bettor ever. “Back when I was betting it, I had a pretty good idea who was going to play and who wasn’t going to play.
“When you got the first team going three quarters and the other team’s starters going a quarter, you don’t need to know much more than that.”
Information is still the name of the game in the preseason, which kicks off Week 1 on Thursday.
“It’s almost all sharp money and information-based wagers,” Westgate SuperBook vice president Jay Kornegay said. “The sharps and our team follow all these beat writers and reporters and interviews to see if they’re going to leak out any information that will be beneficial to either wagering on it or booking it.
“We just hope we can get that information first.”
South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews said sharps usually beat books to the punch in the preseason.
“I hate it, to tell you the truth,” he said. “Because we lose on it. It seems like they know before we do.”
Raiders fit bill
Quarterbacks and coaches are the biggest keys to cashing tickets. In general, it pays to back teams with quarterback competitions and/or strong rotations and coaches who want to win, including ones in their first year with a team.
The Raiders check those boxes with a quarterback competition between Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell and a coach, Antonio Pierce, entering his first full season with the team.
Right Angle Sports, a respected pick-selling service, released plays on the Raiders -2½ and over 36 in their preseason opener Saturday at Minnesota, which opened as a 1½-point favorite. The current line is Raiders -3½ and 39.
“You’re probably going to see a lot of Aidan O’Connell and Gardner Minshew,” Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “I doubt you’ll see very much Sam Darnold for the Vikings. From the quarterback side of it, you have a huge advantage on the Raiders, and that’s why you’ve probably seen that game move.
“Plus, you’ve got a coach who’s in his first full year in Pierce who wants to kind of change the culture there, and preseason games become more important in that case as well.”
Minshew and O’Connell are expected to play one quarter each. Anthony Brown Jr. is third on the Raiders’ depth chart and had one career start for the Ravens. Rookie Carter Bradley is fourth.
RAS also released plays on the Browns -3 over the Packers (now -3½) and the 49ers-Titans over 36 (now 38½).
Cleveland features one of the league’s strongest QB rotations of Deshaun Watson, Jameis Winston, Tyler Huntley and Bishop Gorman High product Dorian Thompson-Robinson.
Best, worst coaches
John Harbaugh has guided the Ravens to a 44-14 preseason record (40-18 against the spread) that included an NFL-record 24-game winning streak that ended last year.
Baltimore, which lost its last two preseason games, opened -3 over Philadelphia before the favorite flipped. The line is now pick’em.
“The market is telling us Harbaugh’s success in August may be a thing of the past,” said pro handicapper Ted Sevransky (@teddy_covers). “He has no quarterback rotation.”
The Ravens have veteran Josh Johnson and rookies Devin Leary and Emory Jones behind reigning NFL MVP Lamar Jackson.
Mike Tomlin has led Pittsburgh to a preseason record of 40-24 (36-27-1 ATS), and the Steelers have a solid rotation of Russell Wilson, Justin Fields, Kyle Allen and rookie John Rhys Plumlee.
Bills coach Sean McDermott is 14-7 (15-8 ATS) in the preseason.
Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell is 0-6 (1-5 ATS), Giants coach Brian Daboll is 3-3 (0-6 ATS), Eagles coach Nick Sirianni is 1-6-2 (2-6-1 ATS) and Commanders coach Dan Quinn is 6-15 (6-14-1 ATS).
More tips
Sevransky shared several other tips for preseason betting, including backing squads with backup quarterback battles and teams planning to blitz, and betting against teams with cluster injuries.
He also recommends playing favorites of -2 or less on the money line.
“In the second half of these games, the coaches are playing to avoid overtime,” Sevransky said. “So 1s and 2s become key numbers, and that’s why we like to play favorites on the money line. And the difference between +1 and +1½ and +2 and +2½ on the (underdog) is enormous.”
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.