Olympic betting preview: Who’s favored to strike gold at Paris Games
Bettors can’t wager on Simone Biles to make a triumphant return to the Olympics because gymnastics is a judged sport.
But you can bet on just about everything else at the Summer Olympics in Paris, where competition starts July 26 and ends Aug. 11.
Sportsbooks have posted odds on everything from archery to water polo, with men’s basketball and women’s soccer the most popular Olympic betting markets.
Team USA is a -500 favorite at the Westgate SuperBook to bring home a gold medal in men’s basketball for the fifth straight Olympics. Canada, led by NBA stars Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jamal Murray, is the 10-1 second choice after losing 86-72 to the Americans in Wednesday’s exhibition game at T-Mobile Arena.
“Most of these teams have one or two NBA players but nothing that should compete with Team USA, except maybe Canada,” SuperBook Olympics oddsmaker Joe Tatka said. “It’s not (1992) and (1996) where (the Americans) just show up and win. But they should still be able to bring home a gold medal.”
The U.S. women’s basketball team appears to be a lock to win its eighth straight gold as prohibitive -2,500 favorites, meaning a bettor must wager $2,500 to win $100.
“The entire team is All Stars, whereas there’s only one or two women from the WNBA anywhere else,” Tatka said. “It’s a complete walkthrough.”
The U.S. women’s soccer team faces much stiffer competition in its quest for its first gold medal since 2012. Team USA is a slight +150 favorite over Spain (+220) and host France (4-1).
“It’s not 20 or 25 years ago where Team USA is the only team out there,” Tatka said. “They probably still have the best team but it’s not a guarantee to win. Up and down the board, the entire world has definitely caught up to them.”
In men’s soccer, the U.S. is a 25-1 long shot to win gold. Host France is a slight 2-1 favorite over Argentina (+225) and Spain (+275).
Track and field
Jamaican sprinter Kishane Thompson is a slight +150 favorite over American Noah Lyles (+185) to win gold in the men’s 100 meters.
“We haven’t had any action on Lyles, which is surprising,” Tatka said. “Kishane Thompson ran amazing times at the Jamaican time trials. Most of the action’s been going his way.”
Lyles stirred controversy last year when he criticized NBA teams for calling themselves world champions.
“World champion of what? The United States?” Lyles asked after increasing his total of world titles to six at the track and field world championships. “That is not the world.”
Lyles is the odds-on -220 favorite to win his first gold medal in the 200 meters.
“In the 200 meters he’s pretty much unbeatable, as long as he’s healthy,” Tatka said.
In the women’s 100 meters, American Sha’Carri Richardson is the odds-on -200 favorite at Caesars Sportsbook to bring home the gold. Jamaica’s Shericka Jackson is the 4-1 second choice.
“Sha’Carri Richardson ran the world’s fastest times this year,” Tatka said. “She looks close to unbeatable.”
Jackson was a slight favorite in the 200 meters over American Gabby Thomas before Jackson pulled up with an apparent injury Tuesday in a 200-meter race.
Tatka plans to put swimming odds on the betting board soon. He said American Katie Ledecky, a seven-time gold medalist, will be favored in all of her longer races in what might be her final Olympic competition.
Most gold medals
The U.S. is the -600 favorite at the SuperBook to win the most gold medals. China is the +450 second choice and every other country is 50-1 or higher.
“It’s pretty much the U.S. and China,” Tatka said. “They send the most athletes.”
The over-under total of gold medals won by the U.S. is 40½ (under -130). China’s total is 34½ (under -130).
Tatka said the SuperBook took some sharp action Tuesday on the U.S. to go under 40½ golds after he bumped the total up from 39½ when Jackson was injured.
Sharp bettors have pounded Great Britain to go under its gold medal total, which has been bet down from 19½ to 15½ (under-115).
“The one that surprised me the most was the under on Great Britain,” Tatka said. “The last three Games, they’ve had 22 to 29 gold medals. But apparently everybody seems to think they’re no-showing these Olympics, because they all seem to love the under on Great Britain.”
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.