‘Parity has taken a vacation’ as NFL favorites dominate for bettors
Pro bettors backed the Packers over the Lions in the marquee matchup of NFL Week 9 on Sunday at Lambeau Field. But the so-called smart money turned out to be as sharp as a marble.
Detroit led 24-3 and cruised to a 24-14 victory over Green Bay as a 2½-point favorite for its sixth straight win and cover.
The Lions (7-1, 7-1 against the spread) delivered one of the best results to the South Point sportsbook on a day in which favorites won 12 of 13 games and went 9-4 ATS. But Detroit was one of the best results for bettors at Station Sports and Caesars Sportsbook.
“There was sharp money on the Packers, but the public just keeps backing the Lions every week,” Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “I think, right now, the Lions are the best team in football, even though the Chiefs are undefeated. If they met in the Super Bowl right now, I’d make the Chiefs very small favorites, -1½.
“In my opinion, they’re by far the best two teams in football right now.”
Kansas City (7-0, 5-2 ATS), a 9-point home favorite over Tampa Bay on “Monday Night Football,” is the +420 favorite at Caesars to win its third straight Super Bowl. The Lions are the 5-1 second choice, and the Ravens — who blew out the Broncos 41-10 as 9-point favorites — are the 6-1 third pick.
The Chiefs are the +350 favorites at the Westgate SuperBook, followed by the Lions and Ravens at 5-1.
“We keep writing a lot of money on the Chiefs despite the low odds,” SuperBook vice president Jay Kornegay said. “I know the Chiefs haven’t been as impressive as the Lions. But they did the same exact thing last year and won it all.”
Unders are 8-6 this week, and a Caesars bettor lost a $220,000 wager on the Lions-Packers over 47½.
“The Lions covering the -2½ was good for the customers,” Caesars head of football Joey Feazel said. “The Lions game staying under the total was good for the book.”
Bills don’t pay
Buffalo, tied for the 10-1 fourth choice with the 49ers at the SuperBook to win the Super Bowl, beat the Dolphins 30-27 but failed to cover as a 6-point home favorite in one of the worst games of the day for bettors.
Miami twice tied it with touchdowns in the fourth quarter, the second time on Tua Tagovailoa’s 7-yard pass to Jaylen Waddle with 1:38 left. Tyler Bass won it for the Bills on a 61-yard field goal with five seconds left.
“The Dolphins were, by far, the best game of the day for our side of the counter,” Esposito said. “The Dolphins covering that game really saved it from being a big losing day.”
The Jaguars (+7½, lost 28-23 to Eagles) also bailed out the books after storming back from a 22-0 second-half deficit and getting a backdoor cover on Trevor Lawrence’s 4-yard TD run with 4:04 left.
“What saved us from being a big loser was winning two of the three biggest decisions,” Kornegay said. “That was the Dolphins covering against the Bills and the Jaguars somehow covering against the Eagles.”
Saints don’t survive
The Saints were the only favorite to lose outright, dropping their seventh straight in a 23-22 defeat to the Panthers as 7-point favorites in a rematch of New Orleans’ 47-10 season-opening rout.
Chuba Hubbard scored on a 16-yard TD run with 2:18 left to put Carolina ahead 23-22, and the Panthers held on to boost the books and eliminate 40 Circa Survivor entries.
Only 151 $1,000 entries remain in the quest for the $14.3 million prize.
Favorites in Command
The SuperBook ended up a loser on the day after the Vikings beat the Colts 21-13 on “Sunday Night Football,” covering on a Sam Darnold TD pass with 2:05 left.
Bettors also won big on the Chargers (-2, beat Browns 27-10), Bengals (-7½, beat Raiders 41-24), Rams (-2, beat Seahawks 26-20 in overtime) and Commanders (-4, beat Giants 27-22).
Washington (7-2) extended its unbeaten cover streak to eight games (7-0-1 ATS). New York made it 27-22 on a Daniel Jones TD pass with 2:48 left, but the 2-point conversion pass failed and Commanders bettors roared.
“The Giants missing that 2-point conversion was very good to our customers,” Feazel said.
New York also missed a 2-point conversion when it cut the deficit to 24-16.
“I know they’re not worried about covering, but you’re within a field goal of tying it if you kick both extra points,” Kornegay said. “Favorites are still dominating. It’s been awhile since we’ve seen those ’dogs bite.
“I don’t know where parity went, but parity has taken a vacation for about four weeks. I’m pretty sure it’s out of vacation time, so I hope he gets his butt back here and gets back to work.”
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.